Smart money holds the underdog side
Most tracked traders hold Over, while the market favors Under (91%). 2 of 3 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.
Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.
Cowboys vs. Eagles: O/U 62.5
2 of 3 top Polymarket traders hold Over (67%) · Over at 9.1¢ · $208 held · ended Oct 27
⚠️
Avoid
Over
3
Over 67%
$207.95
$8.13
8.5¢ → 9.1¢
+7% since entry · 2 traders
Research grade
AvoidOver at 9%
Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the trading costs in the backtests.
- Consensus side under 30¢Longshots (0.05–0.30) lost −29.5 % a trade pooled (n 1,625; −22 % in spring, −35 % in October): the strongest effect in the backtests.
- Spread or totalSpreads and totals: −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
- Fewer than 5 holdersEvery backtest needed 5+ holders; with fewer nothing was measured.
Backtest of Oct 22 2026: one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees. The grade never goes above “Research candidate”: no rule passed the multiple-testing check. It is not a forecast and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
2 of 3 top traders (67%)Underdog side (market favors Under 91%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
FO Forecastication2CTR<$100 | Overavg 9.1¢ | $88.09 | $87.72 | -$0.37 | 50% 6607-6589 (13196) |
AN Anon455CTR | Overavg 7.9¢ | $1.0K | $87.5 | +$8.5 | 56% 2433-1896 (4329) |
LE LeLynxMalynx<$100 | Underavg 90.9¢ | $32.72 | $32.72 | +$0 | 57% 27008-20057 (47065) |
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
9.1¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.5¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.