Smart money holds the underdog side
Most tracked traders hold Under, while the market favors Over (55%). 1 of 2 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.
Cowboys vs. Eagles: O/U 60.5
1 of 2 top Polymarket traders hold Under (50%) · Under at 45¢ · $4K held · ended Oct 27
⚖️
Neutral
Under
2
Under 50%
1 arb excluded
$3.8K
-$45.34
Research grade
NeutralUnder at 45%
No measured edge either way. The plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −4.8 % a trade after costs (n 10,051, 95 % CI −6.5 to −3.1 %).
- Spread or totalSpreads and totals: −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
- Fewer than 5 holdersEvery backtest needed 5+ holders; with fewer nothing was measured.
- Side priced 30–50¢0.30–0.50 lost −6.5 % a trade pooled (n 2,793), a little worse than the plain consensus.
Backtest of Oct 22 2026: one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees. The grade never goes above “Research candidate”: no rule passed the multiple-testing check. It is not a forecast and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
1 of 2 top traders (50%)Underdog side (market favors Over 55%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed1 holds an outcome priced under 50%1 small position dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 RN1ARB<$100 | Underavg 61.1¢ | $2.6K | $3.7K | +$1.1K | 54% 54957-46919 (101876) |
| └ Over leg | Overavg 26.1¢ | $1.3K | $2.7K | +$1.4K | |
| └ Under leg | Underavg 61.1¢ | $1.3K | $968.34 | -$361.77 | |
JU justaluckydudeCTR | Underavg 62.6¢ | $127.92 | $90.93 | -$36.99 | 54% 10277-8909 (19186) |
UP UpTheBlues<$100 | Overavg 64.3¢ | $61.08 | $52.72 | -$8.36 | 59% 43578-30037 (73615) |
RN1ARB<$100Invested
$2,603.3
Value
$3.7K
PnL
+$1.1K
Record
54%
54957-46919 (101876)
Both legs:
Invested
$127.92
Value
$90.93
PnL
-$36.99
Record
54%
10277-8909 (19186)
Invested
$61.08
Value
$52.72
PnL
-$8.36
Record
59%
43578-30037 (73615)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
44.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.