Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Under, while the market favors Over (58%). 3 of 8 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Cowboys vs. Eagles: O/U 56.5

3 of 8 top Polymarket traders hold Under (38%) · Under at 42¢ · $31K held · ended Oct 27

Over58¢Under42¢Ended Tue, Oct 27, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Under

Consensus Traders

Under 38%

3 arb excluded

Total Value

$30.6K

Combined PnL

-$554.32

Smart Money Entry

51.1¢ → 41.9¢

-18% since entry · 3 traders

Research grade

NeutralUnder at 42%

No measured edge either way. The plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −4.8 % a trade after costs (n 10,051, 95 % CI −6.5 to −3.1 %).

Spread or totalSpreads and totals: −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 30–50¢0.30–0.50 lost −6.5 % a trade pooled (n 2,793), a little worse than the plain consensus.

Backtest of Oct 22 2026: one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees. The grade never goes above “Research candidate”: no rule passed the multiple-testing check. It is not a forecast and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Under

3 of 8 top traders (38%)Underdog side (market favors Over 58%)3 arbitrage traders dimmed3 hold an outcome priced under 50%

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Over58%

Under42%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Under3 traders

Total Value$13.7K

Total Shares29,695

Combined PnL$-1.7K

Over5 traders

Total Value$10.2K

Total Shares18,093

Combined PnL+$1.1K

Under — 38%Over — 62%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

4 traders

Top 2 hold 99%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

50% of non-arb traders are on Under. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 99% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (1 on Over) and the top 1000 (7 on Under) disagree here.

whaleUnder 50% · 6

Aligned

ctrOver 60% · 5

Diverging

Hand-pickedOver 100% · 1

Diverging

Top 1000Under 57% · 7

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
TA TAIWANNUMBERONECTR	Underavg 52.8¢	$23.5K	$10.4K	$-2.0K	54% 1166-989 (2155)
HO HomeRunHazardARB<$100	Overavg 53.5¢	$6.5K	$6.1K	-$345.12	54% 16556-13890 (30446)
└ Over leg	Overavg 53.5¢	$4.7K	$4.4K	-$320.03
└ Under leg	Underavg 50.9¢	$1.7K	$1.7K	-$25.09
RN1	Overavg 46.2¢	$3.1K	$3.4K	+$321.22	54% 54908-46856 (101764)
PE penguin1125	Overavg 52.2¢	$3.4K	$3.4K	-$31.32	47% 104-116 (220)
JU justaluckydudeCTR	Underavg 41.8¢	$2.2K	$2.6K	+$346.26	54% 10277-8909 (19186)
PR primm	Overavg 48.2¢	$2.0K	$2.3K	+$298.72	46% 1030-1220 (2250)
UP UpTheBlues	Overavg 22¢	$419.64	$895.81	+$476.17	59% 43528-29978 (73506)
0X 0x8Bb006d1bB8b1C5735DA79E81637e3dad6E3ca79-1768601841360CTR	Underavg 53.2¢	$750	$731.67	-$18.33	45% 119-143 (262)
GA GaditimaARB<$100	Overavg 57¢	$407.43	$425.85	-$31.48	—
└ Over leg	Overavg 57¢	$357.77	$325.13	-$82.54
└ Under leg	Underavg 23.8¢	$49.67	$100.72	+$51.05
TA takeormake	Overavg 38.5¢	$192.74	$252.04	+$59.3	54% 3614-3134 (6748)
AN Anon455ARB<$100	Underavg 54.5¢	$87.87	$79.3	-$9.26	56% 2435-1897 (4332)
└ Under leg	Underavg 54.5¢	$54.5	$45	-$10.2
└ Over leg	Overavg 53.5¢	$33.37	$34.3	+$0.94

TAIWANNUMBERONECTR

Under

Invested

$23,498.03

Value

$10.4K

PnL

$-2.0K

Record

54%

1166-989 (2155)

HomeRunHazardARB<$100

Over

Invested

$6,473.41

Value

$6.1K

PnL

-$345.12

Record

54%

16556-13890 (30446)

Both legs:

Over$4,747.6153.5¢-$320.03

Under$1,725.850.9¢-$25.09

RN1

Over

Invested

$3,098.23

Value

$3.4K

PnL

+$321.22

Record

54%

54908-46856 (101764)

penguin1125

Over

Invested

$3,419.49

Value

$3.4K

PnL

-$31.32

Record

47%

104-116 (220)

justaluckydudeCTR

Under

Invested

$2,222.61

Value

$2.6K

PnL

+$346.26

Record

54%

10277-8909 (19186)

primm

Over

Invested

$1,982.52

Value

$2.3K

PnL

+$298.72

Record

46%

1030-1220 (2250)

UpTheBlues

Over

Invested

$419.64

Value

$895.81

PnL

+$476.17

Record

59%

43528-29978 (73506)

0x8Bb006d1bB8b1C5735DA79E81637e3dad6E3ca79-1768601841360CTR

Under

Invested

$750

Value

$731.67

PnL

-$18.33

Record

45%

119-143 (262)

GaditimaARB<$100

Over

Invested

$407.43

Value

$425.85

PnL

-$31.48

Record

—

Both legs:

Over$357.7757¢-$82.54

Under$49.6723.8¢+$51.05

takeormake

Over

Invested

$192.74

Value

$252.04

PnL

+$59.3

Record

54%

3614-3134 (6748)

Anon455ARB<$100

Under

Invested

$87.87

Value

$79.3

PnL

-$9.26

Record

56%

2435-1897 (4332)

Both legs:

Under$54.554.5¢-$10.2

Over$33.3753.5¢+$0.94

Research grade

NeutralUnder at 42%

No measured edge either way. The plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −4.8 % a trade after costs (n 10,051, 95 % CI −6.5 to −3.1 %).

Spread or totalSpreads and totals: −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 30–50¢0.30–0.50 lost −6.5 % a trade pooled (n 2,793), a little worse than the plain consensus.

Smart Money Signal

Under

3 of 8 top traders (38%)Underdog side (market favors Over 58%)3 arbitrage traders dimmed3 hold an outcome priced under 50%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

4 traders

Top 2 hold 99%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

50% of non-arb traders are on Under. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 99% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (1 on Over) and the top 1000 (7 on Under) disagree here.

whaleUnder 50% · 6

Aligned

ctrOver 60% · 5

Diverging

Hand-pickedOver 100% · 1

Diverging

Top 1000Under 57% · 7

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Under wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance44.2%

41.9¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$126.37

Max Loss

-$100.00

226.4

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.