Cowboys vs. Eagles: O/U 50.5

3 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold Under (60%) · Under at 70¢ · $746 held · ended Oct 27

Over30¢Under70¢Ended Tue, Oct 27, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Under

Consensus Traders

Under 60%

Total Value

$746.14

Combined PnL

$2.82

Smart Money Entry

70.1¢ → 70.4¢

+0% since entry · 3 traders

Research grade

NeutralUnder at 70%

No measured edge either way. The plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −4.8 % a trade after costs (n 10,051, 95 % CI −6.5 to −3.1 %).

Spread or totalSpreads and totals: −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Favourite (60–95¢)0.70–0.90 was about break-even after costs, +0.4 % a trade (n 4,327); 0.60–0.95 with 70 %+ and $10k+ +2.9 % (n 955). The consensus beats its price by 2–3 points here, about what the costs take.

Backtest of Oct 22 2026: one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees. The grade never goes above “Research candidate”: no rule passed the multiple-testing check. It is not a forecast and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Under

3 of 5 top traders (60%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Over30%

Under70%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Under3 traders

Total Value$725.39

Total Shares1,030

Combined PnL+$3.05

Over2 traders

Total Value$20.75

Total Shares70

Combined PnL-$0.23

Under — 60%Over — 40%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
VeryLucky888	Underavg 70.1¢	$619.95	$622.61	+$2.65	58% 39668-28654 (68322)
0X 0x760907C8840491c8C86fdDB843D3f1d801786C4e-1771959662080<$100	Underavg 70¢	$70	$70.4	+$0.4	51% 1144-1084 (2228)
LE LeLynxMalynx<$100	Underavg 70.4¢	$32.38	$32.38	+$0	57% 27008-20057 (47065)
AN Anon455CTR<$100	Overavg 29.5¢	$12.55	$12.6	+$0.02	56% 2433-1896 (4329)
GH ghorrockCTR<$100	Overavg 30.3¢	$11.9	$8.15	-$0.25	57% 12531-9470 (22001)

VeryLucky888

Under

Invested

$619.95

Value

$622.61

PnL

+$2.65

Record

58%

39668-28654 (68322)

0x760907C8840491c8C86fdDB843D3f1d801786C4e-1771959662080<$100

Under

Invested

$70

Value

$70.4

PnL

+$0.4

Record

51%

1144-1084 (2228)

LeLynxMalynx<$100

Under

Invested

$32.38

Value

$32.38

PnL

+$0

Record

57%

27008-20057 (47065)

Anon455CTR<$100

Over

Invested

$12.55

Value

$12.6

PnL

+$0.02

Record

56%

2433-1896 (4329)

ghorrockCTR<$100

Over

Invested

$11.9

Value

$8.15

PnL

-$0.25

Record

57%

12531-9470 (22001)

Research grade

NeutralUnder at 70%

No measured edge either way. The plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −4.8 % a trade after costs (n 10,051, 95 % CI −6.5 to −3.1 %).

Spread or totalSpreads and totals: −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Favourite (60–95¢)0.70–0.90 was about break-even after costs, +0.4 % a trade (n 4,327); 0.60–0.95 with 70 %+ and $10k+ +2.9 % (n 955). The consensus beats its price by 2–3 points here, about what the costs take.

Smart Money Signal

Under

3 of 5 top traders (60%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Under wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance72.4%

70.4¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.0¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$38.08

Max Loss

-$100.00

138.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.