Smart money holds the underdog side
Most tracked traders hold Under, while the market favors Over (75%). 3 of 6 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.
Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.
Cowboys vs. Eagles: O/U 48.5
3 of 6 top Polymarket traders hold Under (50%) · Under at 25¢ · $7K held · ended Oct 27
⚠️
Avoid
Under
6
Under 50%
$6.9K
$719.2
62.1¢ → 24.9¢
-60% since entry · 3 traders
Research grade
AvoidUnder at 25%
Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the trading costs in the backtests.
- Consensus side under 30¢Longshots (0.05–0.30) lost −29.5 % a trade pooled (n 1,625; −22 % in spring, −35 % in October): the strongest effect in the backtests.
- Spread or totalSpreads and totals: −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Backtest of Oct 22 2026: one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees. The grade never goes above “Research candidate”: no rule passed the multiple-testing check. It is not a forecast and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
3 of 6 top traders (50%)Underdog side (market favors Over 75%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%1 small position dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
SU SunlineTickerCTR | Underavg 64.5¢ | $3.4K | $3.4K | -$20.24 | 62% 3928-2392 (6320) |
BR BreakTheBank | Overavg 35.8¢ | $676.71 | $1.4K | +$729.64 | 45% 516-623 (1139) |
UP UpTheBluesCTR | Underavg 64.2¢ | $1.2K | $1.2K | -$1.76 | 59% 43329-29788 (73117) |
FO Forecastication2 | Overavg 35.6¢ | $396.34 | $399.57 | +$9.35 | 50% 6607-6589 (13196) |
HO HomeRunHazardCTR | Underavg 42¢ | $352.84 | $354.94 | +$2.1 | 54% 16251-13613 (29864) |
LE LeLynxMalynx<$100 | Overavg 35.8¢ | $41.17 | $41.29 | +$0.11 | 57% 27008-20057 (47065) |
Invested
$3,443.58
Value
$3.4K
PnL
-$20.24
Record
62%
3928-2392 (6320)
Invested
$676.71
Value
$1.4K
PnL
+$729.64
Record
45%
516-623 (1139)
Invested
$1,229.43
Value
$1.2K
PnL
-$1.76
Record
59%
43329-29788 (73117)
Invested
$396.34
Value
$399.57
PnL
+$9.35
Record
50%
6607-6589 (13196)
Invested
$352.84
Value
$354.94
PnL
+$2.1
Record
54%
16251-13613 (29864)
Invested
$41.17
Value
$41.29
PnL
+$0.11
Record
57%
27008-20057 (47065)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
24.9¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.0¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.