Cowboys vs. Eagles: O/U 46.5

6 of 12 top Polymarket traders hold Over (50%) · Over at 83¢ · $7K held · ended Oct 27

Over83¢Under17¢Ended Tue, Oct 27, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Over

Consensus Traders

Over 50%

Total Value

$6.7K

Combined PnL

$147.25

Smart Money Entry

44.1¢ → 83¢

+88% since entry · 6 traders

Research grade

NeutralOver at 83%

No measured edge either way. The plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −4.8 % a trade after costs (n 10,051, 95 % CI −6.5 to −3.1 %).

Spread or totalSpreads and totals: −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)0.70–0.90 was about break-even after costs, +0.4 % a trade (n 4,327); 0.60–0.95 with 70 %+ and $10k+ +2.9 % (n 955). The consensus beats its price by 2–3 points here, about what the costs take.

Backtest of Oct 22 2026: one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees. The grade never goes above “Research candidate”: no rule passed the multiple-testing check. It is not a forecast and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Over

6 of 12 top traders (50%)6 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Over83%

Under17%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Over6 traders

Total Value$5.0K

Total Shares11,080

Combined PnL+$104.77

Under6 traders

Total Value$1.7K

Total Shares2,946

Combined PnL+$42.48

Over — 50%Under — 50%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
SU SunlineTicker	Overavg 42¢	$1.8K	$1.7K	-$41.75	62% 3928-2392 (6320)
StudyPrediction	Overavg 41.5¢	$1.7K	$1.7K	-$0.01	54% 4456-3858 (8314)
AN Anon455CTR	Underavg 55¢	$917.89	$959.61	+$41.72	56% 2433-1896 (4329)
HO HomeRunHazard	Overavg 45¢	$751	$709.28	-$41.72	54% 16251-13613 (29864)
0X 0x84e01e855165C5d56DE153c96DCC3B9bCe727F3D-1782704499041CTR	Underavg 59¢	$600	$600	+$0	58% 179-127 (306)
0X 0x760907C8840491c8C86fdDB843D3f1d801786C4e-1771959662080	Overavg 66.3¢	$464	$556.5	+$92.5	51% 1144-1084 (2228)
TA takeormake	Overavg 46.2¢	$239.14	$338.75	+$99.61	54% 3607-3130 (6737)
VeryLucky888CTR<$100	Underavg 58¢	$88.56	$89.31	+$0.76	58% 39668-28654 (68322)
NA NatoAlfistaCTR<$100	Underavg 59¢	$57.23	$57.23	-$0.48	50% 3628-3599 (7227)
JU justaluckydude<$100	Overavg 90¢	$29.35	$25.49	-$3.86	53% 9987-8708 (18695)
MO mooseborzoiiCTR<$100	Underavg 54¢	$2.76	$2.78	+$0.03	50% 1084-1075 (2159)
SH shoemanhereCTR<$100	Underavg 34¢	$2.1	$2.56	+$0.46	56% 6910-5322 (12232)

SunlineTicker

Over

Invested

$1,753.5

Value

$1.7K

PnL

-$41.75

Record

62%

3928-2392 (6320)

StudyPrediction

Over

Invested

$1,659.13

Value

$1.7K

PnL

-$0.01

Record

54%

4456-3858 (8314)

Anon455CTR

Under

Invested

$917.89

Value

$959.61

PnL

+$41.72

Record

56%

2433-1896 (4329)

HomeRunHazard

Over

Invested

$751

Value

$709.28

PnL

-$41.72

Record

54%

16251-13613 (29864)

0x84e01e855165C5d56DE153c96DCC3B9bCe727F3D-1782704499041CTR

Under

Invested

$600

Value

$600

PnL

+$0

Record

58%

179-127 (306)

0x760907C8840491c8C86fdDB843D3f1d801786C4e-1771959662080

Over

Invested

$464

Value

$556.5

PnL

+$92.5

Record

51%

1144-1084 (2228)

takeormake

Over

Invested

$239.14

Value

$338.75

PnL

+$99.61

Record

54%

3607-3130 (6737)

VeryLucky888CTR<$100

Under

Invested

$88.56

Value

$89.31

PnL

+$0.76

Record

58%

39668-28654 (68322)

NatoAlfistaCTR<$100

Under

Invested

$57.23

Value

$57.23

PnL

-$0.48

Record

50%

3628-3599 (7227)

justaluckydude<$100

Over

Invested

$29.35

Value

$25.49

PnL

-$3.86

Record

53%

9987-8708 (18695)

mooseborzoiiCTR<$100

Under

Invested

$2.76

Value

$2.78

PnL

+$0.03

Record

50%

1084-1075 (2159)

shoemanhereCTR<$100

Under

Invested

$2.1

Value

$2.56

PnL

+$0.46

Record

56%

6910-5322 (12232)

Research grade

NeutralOver at 83%

No measured edge either way. The plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −4.8 % a trade after costs (n 10,051, 95 % CI −6.5 to −3.1 %).

Spread or totalSpreads and totals: −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)0.70–0.90 was about break-even after costs, +0.4 % a trade (n 4,327); 0.60–0.95 with 70 %+ and $10k+ +2.9 % (n 955). The consensus beats its price by 2–3 points here, about what the costs take.

Smart Money Signal

Over

6 of 12 top traders (50%)6 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Over wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance84.7%

83.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.7¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$18.10

Max Loss

-$100.00

118.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.