Smart money holds the underdog side
Most tracked traders hold Over, while the market favors Under (52%). 4 of 6 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.
Cowboys vs. Eagles: O/U 44.5
4 of 6 top Polymarket traders hold Over (67%) · Over at 48¢ · $3K held · ends Oct 27
⚖️
Neutral
Over
6
Over 67%
$2.7K
$23.78
47.7¢ → 48.3¢
+1% since entry · 4 traders
Research grade
NeutralOver at 48%
No measured edge either way. The plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −4.8 % a trade after costs (n 10,051, 95 % CI −6.5 to −3.1 %).
- Spread or totalSpreads and totals: −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
- Side priced 30–50¢0.30–0.50 lost −6.5 % a trade pooled (n 2,793), a little worse than the plain consensus.
Backtest of Oct 22 2026: one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees. The grade never goes above “Research candidate”: no rule passed the multiple-testing check. It is not a forecast and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
4 of 6 top traders (67%)Underdog side (market favors Under 52%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
UP UpTheBluesCTR | Overavg 47.9¢ | $1.5K | $1.5K | +$9.51 | 60% 40192-26830 (67022) |
 StudyPredictionCTR | Overavg 47¢ | $807.87 | $828.49 | +$14.61 | 53% 4327-3811 (8138) |
FO Forecastication2CTR | Overavg 48.3¢ | $227.98 | $227.74 | -$0.24 | 63% 5990-3478 (9468) |
 0xheavy888CTR<$100 | Overavg 48.3¢ | $81.09 | $80.98 | -$0.11 | 56% 6708-5376 (12084) |
LE LeLynxMalynx<$100 | Underavg 51.7¢ | $22.23 | $22.27 | +$0.02 | 56% 24841-19200 (44041) |
0X 0x8g68hBa8tyH1946Bhjb674g3fuyUIGYUi4uhflks<$100 | Underavg 51.8¢ | $10.88 | $10.87 | -$0.01 | 54% 2855-2435 (5290) |
Invested
$1,523.4
Value
$1.5K
PnL
+$9.51
Record
60%
40192-26830 (67022)
StudyPredictionCTRInvested
$807.87
Value
$828.49
PnL
+$14.61
Record
53%
4327-3811 (8138)
Invested
$227.98
Value
$227.74
PnL
-$0.24
Record
63%
5990-3478 (9468)
0xheavy888CTR<$100Invested
$81.09
Value
$80.98
PnL
-$0.11
Record
56%
6708-5376 (12084)
Invested
$22.23
Value
$22.27
PnL
+$0.02
Record
56%
24841-19200 (44041)
Invested
$10.88
Value
$10.87
PnL
-$0.01
Record
54%
2855-2435 (5290)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
48.3¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.