Smart money holds the underdog side
Most tracked traders hold Under, while the market favors Over (55%). 6 of 7 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.
Cowboys vs. Eagles: O/U 42.5
6 of 7 top Polymarket traders hold Under (86%) · Under at 45¢ · $44K held · ends Oct 27
⚖️
Neutral
Under
7
Under 86%
$43.7K
$439.38
44.1¢ → 44.9¢
+2% since entry · 6 traders
Research grade
NeutralUnder at 45%
No measured edge either way. The plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −4.8 % a trade after costs (n 10,051, 95 % CI −6.5 to −3.1 %).
- Spread or totalSpreads and totals: −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
- Side priced 30–50¢0.30–0.50 lost −6.5 % a trade pooled (n 2,793), a little worse than the plain consensus.
Backtest of Oct 22 2026: one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees. The grade never goes above “Research candidate”: no rule passed the multiple-testing check. It is not a forecast and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
6 of 7 top traders (86%)Underdog side (market favors Over 55%)6 hold an outcome priced under 50%1 small position dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
UP UpTheBluesCTR | Underavg 44.1¢ | $27.3K | $27.8K | +$453.01 | 59% 43129-29562 (72691) |
HO HomeRunHazardCTR | Underavg 43.9¢ | $5.9K | $5.9K | +$5.42 | 54% 16108-13511 (29619) |
BR BreakTheBank | Overavg 55.1¢ | $4.2K | $4.2K | +$3.85 | 46% 516-610 (1126) |
BA Bagwell306CTR | Underavg 43.9¢ | $2.6K | $2.6K | +$0.08 | 59% 3869-2704 (6573) |
BA BayupatiCTR | Underavg 44¢ | $2.4K | $2.4K | -$2.73 | 50% 174-174 (348) |
 VeryLucky888CTR | Underavg 45¢ | $735.82 | $709.79 | -$20.26 | 58% 39436-28511 (67947) |
NA NatoAlfistaCTR<$100 | Underavg 43.8¢ | $28.47 | $28.47 | -$0 | 50% 3625-3593 (7218) |
Invested
$27,341.25
Value
$27.8K
PnL
+$453.01
Record
59%
43129-29562 (72691)
Invested
$5,917.23
Value
$5.9K
PnL
+$5.42
Record
54%
16108-13511 (29619)
Invested
$4,242.31
Value
$4.2K
PnL
+$3.85
Record
46%
516-610 (1126)
Invested
$2,563.41
Value
$2.6K
PnL
+$0.08
Record
59%
3869-2704 (6573)
Invested
$2,401.08
Value
$2.4K
PnL
-$2.73
Record
50%
174-174 (348)
VeryLucky888CTRInvested
$735.82
Value
$709.79
PnL
-$20.26
Record
58%
39436-28511 (67947)
Invested
$28.47
Value
$28.47
PnL
-$0
Record
50%
3625-3593 (7218)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
44.9¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.