Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Under, while the market favors Over (61%). 4 of 4 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.

Cowboys vs. Eagles: O/U 40.5

4 of 4 top Polymarket traders hold Under (100%) · Under at 39¢ · $1K held · ended Oct 27

Over61¢Under39¢Ended Tue, Oct 27, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Under

Consensus Traders

Under 100%

Total Value

$1.3K

Combined PnL

$2.54

Smart Money Entry

38.6¢ → 38.7¢

+0% since entry · 4 traders

Research grade

NeutralUnder at 39%

No measured edge either way. The plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −4.8 % a trade after costs (n 10,051, 95 % CI −6.5 to −3.1 %).

Spread or totalSpreads and totals: −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Fewer than 5 holdersEvery backtest needed 5+ holders; with fewer nothing was measured.
Side priced 30–50¢0.30–0.50 lost −6.5 % a trade pooled (n 2,793), a little worse than the plain consensus.

Backtest of Oct 22 2026: one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees. The grade never goes above “Research candidate”: no rule passed the multiple-testing check. It is not a forecast and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Under

4 of 4 top traders (100%)Underdog side (market favors Over 61%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Over61%

Under39%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Under4 traders

Total Value$1.3K

Total Shares3,232

Combined PnL+$2.54

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
HO HomeRunHazardCTR	Underavg 38.6¢	$993.29	$996.33	+$3.04	54% 16251-13613 (29864)
UP UpTheBluesCTR	Underavg 38.8¢	$170.52	$170.28	-$0.24	59% 43329-29788 (73117)
LE LeLynxMalynxCTR<$100	Underavg 38.9¢	$50.18	$49.92	-$0.26	57% 27008-20057 (47065)
FO Forecastication2CTR<$100	Underavg 38.7¢	$34.44	$34.44	+$0	50% 6607-6589 (13196)

HomeRunHazardCTR

Under

Invested

$993.29

Value

$996.33

PnL

+$3.04

Record

54%

16251-13613 (29864)

UpTheBluesCTR

Under

Invested

$170.52

Value

$170.28

PnL

-$0.24

Record

59%

43329-29788 (73117)

LeLynxMalynxCTR<$100

Under

Invested

$50.18

Value

$49.92

PnL

-$0.26

Record

57%

27008-20057 (47065)

Forecastication2CTR<$100

Under

Invested

$34.44

Value

$34.44

PnL

+$0

Record

50%

6607-6589 (13196)

Research grade

NeutralUnder at 39%

No measured edge either way. The plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −4.8 % a trade after costs (n 10,051, 95 % CI −6.5 to −3.1 %).

Spread or totalSpreads and totals: −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Fewer than 5 holdersEvery backtest needed 5+ holders; with fewer nothing was measured.
Side priced 30–50¢0.30–0.50 lost −6.5 % a trade pooled (n 2,793), a little worse than the plain consensus.

Smart Money Signal

Under

4 of 4 top traders (100%)Underdog side (market favors Over 61%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

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EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Under wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance40.9%

38.7¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$144.52

Max Loss

-$100.00

244.5

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.