Cowboys vs. Eagles: O/U 30.5

3 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold Over (60%) · Over at 98¢ · $487 held · ended Oct 27

Over98¢Under2¢Ended Tue, Oct 27, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Over

Consensus Traders

Over 60%

Total Value

$487.26

Combined PnL

-$128.11

Smart Money Entry

85.1¢ → 98.5¢

+16% since entry · 3 traders

Research grade

NeutralOver at 98%

No measured edge either way. The plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −4.8 % a trade after costs (n 10,051, 95 % CI −6.5 to −3.1 %).

Side priced over 95¢0.90–0.99 was −0.2 % a trade (n 4,210); above 95¢ little is left to win and the backtests' bands stop at 0.95.
Spread or totalSpreads and totals: −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.

Backtest of Oct 22 2026: one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees. The grade never goes above “Research candidate”: no rule passed the multiple-testing check. It is not a forecast and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Over

3 of 5 top traders (60%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Over98%

Under2%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Over3 traders

Total Value$362.88

Total Shares415

Combined PnL+$9.92

Under2 traders

Total Value$124.38

Total Shares995

Combined PnL-$138.03

Over — 60%Under — 40%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
UP UpTheBlues	Overavg 85¢	$266.73	$274.58	+$7.84	59% 43329-29788 (73117)
NE neymar1CTR	Underavg 14.5¢	$123.8	$106.88	-$16.93	31% 318-693 (1011)
LE LeLynxMalynx<$100	Overavg 85.4¢	$74.33	$76.13	+$1.8	57% 27008-20057 (47065)
0X 0x6cdcde705c1f21ae2dfc4eac41e424970740e23eCTR	Underavg 99¢	$138.6	$17.5	-$121.1	78% 78-22 (100)
GH ghorrock<$100	Overavg 85.5¢	$11.9	$12.18	+$0.28	57% 12531-9470 (22001)

UpTheBlues

Over

Invested

$266.73

Value

$274.58

PnL

+$7.84

Record

59%

43329-29788 (73117)

neymar1CTR

Under

Invested

$123.8

Value

$106.88

PnL

-$16.93

Record

31%

318-693 (1011)

LeLynxMalynx<$100

Over

Invested

$74.33

Value

$76.13

PnL

+$1.8

Record

57%

27008-20057 (47065)

0x6cdcde705c1f21ae2dfc4eac41e424970740e23eCTR

Under

Invested

$138.6

Value

$17.5

PnL

-$121.1

Record

78%

78-22 (100)

ghorrock<$100

Over

Invested

$11.9

Value

$12.18

PnL

+$0.28

Record

57%

12531-9470 (22001)

Research grade

NeutralOver at 98%

No measured edge either way. The plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −4.8 % a trade after costs (n 10,051, 95 % CI −6.5 to −3.1 %).

Side priced over 95¢0.90–0.99 was −0.2 % a trade (n 4,210); above 95¢ little is left to win and the backtests' bands stop at 0.95.
Spread or totalSpreads and totals: −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.

Smart Money Signal

Over

3 of 5 top traders (60%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Over wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance99.5%

98.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$0.53

Max Loss

-$100.00

100.5

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.