Spread: Eagles (-3.5)
4 of 6 top Polymarket traders hold Cowboys (67%) · Cowboys at 80¢ · $32K held · ends Oct 27
⚖️
Neutral
Cowboys
6
Cowboys 67%
$31.9K
$-2.1K
79.9¢ → 79.5¢
-1% since entry · 4 traders
Research grade
NeutralCowboys at 80%
No measured edge either way. The plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −4.8 % a trade after costs (n 10,051, 95 % CI −6.5 to −3.1 %).
- Spread or totalSpreads and totals: −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
- Favourite (60–95¢)0.70–0.90 was about break-even after costs, +0.4 % a trade (n 4,327); 0.60–0.95 with 70 %+ and $10k+ +2.9 % (n 955). The consensus beats its price by 2–3 points here, about what the costs take.
Backtest of Oct 22 2026: one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees. The grade never goes above “Research candidate”: no rule passed the multiple-testing check. It is not a forecast and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
4 of 6 top traders (67%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
UP UpTheBlues | Cowboysavg 80¢ | $31.3K | $29.4K | $-2.0K | 60% 39473-26004 (65477) |
FO Forecastication2CTR | Eaglesavg 21¢ | $1.1K | $1.0K | -$25.43 | 62% 5463-3346 (8809) |
HO HomeRunHazard | Cowboysavg 78.7¢ | $812.37 | $773.68 | -$38.68 | 55% 14758-12309 (27067) |
0X 0x5b624e3E0426F7AA2Ca57F7451fbcEa4b125D87f-1769796221989 | Cowboysavg 79¢ | $781.04 | $741.5 | -$39.55 | 54% 5135-4443 (9578) |
 VeryLucky888<$100 | Cowboysavg 79¢ | $7.9 | $7.5 | -$0.4 | 58% 37023-26943 (63966) |
BO BoomLaLaCTR<$100 | Eaglesavg 20¢ | $2.2 | $2.75 | +$0.55 | 55% 9943-8032 (17975) |
Invested
$31,333.6
Value
$29.4K
PnL
$-2.0K
Record
60%
39473-26004 (65477)
Invested
$1,068.06
Value
$1.0K
PnL
-$25.43
Record
62%
5463-3346 (8809)
Invested
$812.37
Value
$773.68
PnL
-$38.68
Record
55%
14758-12309 (27067)
Invested
$781.04
Value
$741.5
PnL
-$39.55
Record
54%
5135-4443 (9578)
VeryLucky888<$100Invested
$7.9
Value
$7.5
PnL
-$0.4
Record
58%
37023-26943 (63966)
Invested
$2.2
Value
$2.75
PnL
+$0.55
Record
55%
9943-8032 (17975)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
79.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.8¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.