Spread: Eagles (-2.5)
2 of 3 top Polymarket traders hold Cowboys (67%) · Cowboys at 54¢ · $3K held · ended Oct 27
⚖️
Neutral
Cowboys
3
Cowboys 67%
$3.4K
$468.6
72.9¢ → 54¢
-26% since entry · 2 traders
Research grade
NeutralCowboys at 54%
No measured edge either way. The plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −4.8 % a trade after costs (n 10,051, 95 % CI −6.5 to −3.1 %).
- Spread or totalSpreads and totals: −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
- Fewer than 5 holdersEvery backtest needed 5+ holders; with fewer nothing was measured.
- Side priced 50–60¢0.50–0.70 lost −3.2 % a trade pooled (n 3,834).
Backtest of Oct 22 2026: one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees. The grade never goes above “Research candidate”: no rule passed the multiple-testing check. It is not a forecast and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
2 of 3 top traders (67%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
AN Anon455 | Cowboysavg 59.9¢ | $2.0K | $1.8K | +$611.51 | 56% 2440-1906 (4346) |
 RN1 | Cowboysavg 83¢ | $1.5K | $1.4K | -$129.6 | 54% 54957-46919 (101876) |
DE degenmCTR | Eaglesavg 46.8¢ | $162.24 | $159.31 | -$13.32 | 54% 1322-1142 (2464) |
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
54.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.