Smart money holds the underdog side
Most tracked traders hold Eagles, while the market favors Cowboys (66%). 2 of 4 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.
Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.
Spread: Eagles (-1.5)
2 of 4 top Polymarket traders hold Eagles (50%) · Eagles at 34¢ · $2K held · ended Oct 27
⚖️
Neutral
Eagles
4
Eagles 50%
$2.4K
$-1.3K
62.4¢ → 34¢
-45% since entry · 2 traders
Research grade
NeutralEagles at 34%
No measured edge either way. The plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −4.8 % a trade after costs (n 10,051, 95 % CI −6.5 to −3.1 %).
- Spread or totalSpreads and totals: −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
- Fewer than 5 holdersEvery backtest needed 5+ holders; with fewer nothing was measured.
- Side priced 30–50¢0.30–0.50 lost −6.5 % a trade pooled (n 2,793), a little worse than the plain consensus.
Backtest of Oct 22 2026: one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees. The grade never goes above “Research candidate”: no rule passed the multiple-testing check. It is not a forecast and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
2 of 4 top traders (50%)Underdog side (market favors Cowboys 66%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 RN1 | Cowboysavg 55¢ | $1.3K | $1.7K | +$487.08 | 54% 54957-46919 (101876) |
JU justaluckydudeCTR | Eaglesavg 63.7¢ | $3.2K | $379.08 | $-1.6K | 54% 10277-8909 (19186) |
LO looppau | Cowboysavg 99.9¢ | $304.7 | $201.3 | -$103.39 | 99% 10146-47 (10193) |
DE degenmCTR | Eaglesavg 49.5¢ | $124.73 | $111.68 | -$13.05 | 54% 1322-1142 (2464) |
RN1Invested
$1,306.8
Value
$1.7K
PnL
+$487.08
Record
54%
54957-46919 (101876)
Invested
$3,159
Value
$379.08
PnL
$-1.6K
Record
54%
10277-8909 (19186)
Invested
$304.7
Value
$201.3
PnL
-$103.39
Record
99%
10146-47 (10193)
Invested
$124.73
Value
$111.68
PnL
-$13.05
Record
54%
1322-1142 (2464)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
34.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.1¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.