Smart money holds the underdog side
Most tracked traders hold Cowboys, while the market favors Eagles (57%). 1 of 3 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.
Spread: Cowboys (-8.5)
1 of 3 top Polymarket traders hold Cowboys (33%) · Cowboys at 43¢ · $6K held · ended Oct 27
⚖️
Neutral
Cowboys
3
Cowboys 33%
$6.0K
-$330.69
Research grade
NeutralCowboys at 43%
No measured edge either way. The plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −4.8 % a trade after costs (n 10,051, 95 % CI −6.5 to −3.1 %).
- Spread or totalSpreads and totals: −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
- Fewer than 5 holdersEvery backtest needed 5+ holders; with fewer nothing was measured.
- Side priced 30–50¢0.30–0.50 lost −6.5 % a trade pooled (n 2,793), a little worse than the plain consensus.
Backtest of Oct 22 2026: one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees. The grade never goes above “Research candidate”: no rule passed the multiple-testing check. It is not a forecast and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
1 of 3 top traders (33%)Underdog side (market favors Eagles 57%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 RN1CTR | Cowboysavg 45.7¢ | $3.5K | $3.3K | -$225.22 | 54% 54957-46919 (101876) |
CH chiefphi | Eaglesavg 57¢ | $1.7K | $1.7K | +$0 | 57% 80-61 (141) |
JU justaluckydude | Eaglesavg 63.2¢ | $1.0K | $929.44 | -$105.47 | 54% 10277-8909 (19186) |
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
43.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.