Smart money holds the underdog side
Most tracked traders hold Cowboys, while the market favors Eagles (54%). 2 of 3 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.
Spread: Cowboys (-5.5)
2 of 3 top Polymarket traders hold Cowboys (67%) · Cowboys at 46¢ · $13K held · ends Oct 27
⚖️
Neutral
Cowboys
3
Cowboys 67%
$13.2K
-$44.75
47¢ → 46¢
-2% since entry · 2 traders
Research grade
NeutralCowboys at 46%
No measured edge either way. The plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −4.8 % a trade after costs (n 10,051, 95 % CI −6.5 to −3.1 %).
- Spread or totalSpreads and totals: −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
- Fewer than 5 holdersEvery backtest needed 5+ holders; with fewer nothing was measured.
- Side priced 30–50¢0.30–0.50 lost −6.5 % a trade pooled (n 2,793), a little worse than the plain consensus.
Backtest of Oct 22 2026: one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees. The grade never goes above “Research candidate”: no rule passed the multiple-testing check. It is not a forecast and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
2 of 3 top traders (67%)Underdog side (market favors Eagles 54%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
SU SunlineTicker | Eaglesavg 53¢ | $5.8K | $5.9K | +$34.56 | 62% 3922-2385 (6307) |
 VeryLucky888CTR | Cowboysavg 47¢ | $4.6K | $4.5K | -$49.3 | 58% 39436-28511 (67947) |
FO forget4CTR | Cowboysavg 47¢ | $6.0K | $2.8K | -$30 | 43% 668-877 (1545) |
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
46.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.