Smart money holds the underdog side
Most tracked traders hold Cowboys, while the market favors Eagles (52%). 5 of 5 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.
Spread: Cowboys (-4.5)
5 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold Cowboys (100%) · Cowboys at 49¢ · $25K held · ends Oct 27
⚖️
Neutral
Cowboys
5
Cowboys 100%
$24.5K
-$161.01
48.9¢ → 48.5¢
-1% since entry · 5 traders
Research grade
NeutralCowboys at 49%
No measured edge either way. The plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −4.8 % a trade after costs (n 10,051, 95 % CI −6.5 to −3.1 %).
- Spread or totalSpreads and totals: −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
- Side priced 30–50¢0.30–0.50 lost −6.5 % a trade pooled (n 2,793), a little worse than the plain consensus.
Backtest of Oct 22 2026: one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees. The grade never goes above “Research candidate”: no rule passed the multiple-testing check. It is not a forecast and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
5 of 5 top traders (100%)Underdog side (market favors Eagles 52%)5 hold an outcome priced under 50%1 small position dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
5 traders
Top 2 hold 90%
Freshness
Fresh
0h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
100% of non-arb traders are on Cowboys. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 90% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
MO mooseborzoiiCTR | Cowboysavg 49¢ | $17.5K | $17.5K | -$175.1 | 50% 1076-1065 (2141) |
SU SunlineTickerCTR | Cowboysavg 49¢ | $4.6K | $4.6K | -$47.26 | 63% 3819-2278 (6097) |
 VeryLucky888CTR | Cowboysavg 48¢ | $2.4K | $2.2K | +$50.37 | 58% 37020-26943 (63963) |
SL slimjoeCTR | Cowboysavg 48¢ | $210.24 | $214.62 | +$10.95 | 51% 5788-5578 (11366) |
LE LeLynxMalynxCTR<$100 | Cowboysavg 50¢ | $2.5 | $2.45 | +$0.03 | 57% 23971-18438 (42409) |
Invested
$17,482.4
Value
$17.5K
PnL
-$175.1
Record
50%
1076-1065 (2141)
Invested
$4,632.46
Value
$4.6K
PnL
-$47.26
Record
63%
3819-2278 (6097)
VeryLucky888CTRInvested
$2,362.65
Value
$2.2K
PnL
+$50.37
Record
58%
37020-26943 (63963)
Invested
$210.24
Value
$214.62
PnL
+$10.95
Record
51%
5788-5578 (11366)
Invested
$2.5
Value
$2.45
PnL
+$0.03
Record
57%
23971-18438 (42409)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
48.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.