Spread: Cowboys (-3.5)
1 of 4 top Polymarket traders hold Cowboys (25%) · Cowboys at 54¢ · $20K held · ends Oct 27
⚖️
Neutral
Cowboys
4
Cowboys 25%
$20.1K
$130.14
Research grade
NeutralCowboys at 54%
No measured edge either way. The plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −4.8 % a trade after costs (n 10,051, 95 % CI −6.5 to −3.1 %).
- Spread or totalSpreads and totals: −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
- Fewer than 5 holdersEvery backtest needed 5+ holders; with fewer nothing was measured.
- Side priced 50–60¢0.50–0.70 lost −3.2 % a trade pooled (n 3,834).
Backtest of Oct 22 2026: one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees. The grade never goes above “Research candidate”: no rule passed the multiple-testing check. It is not a forecast and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
1 of 4 top traders (25%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
LI lightotunnel35 | Cowboysavg 53.1¢ | $10.7K | $10.9K | +$180 | 53% 41-36 (77) |
HO HomeRunHazardCTR | Eaglesavg 46¢ | $5.1K | $5.1K | +$0 | 54% 15474-12956 (28430) |
 VeryLucky888CTR | Eaglesavg 46.7¢ | $4.0K | $3.4K | -$49.86 | 58% 37579-27344 (64923) |
SU SunlineTickerCTR | Eaglesavg 46¢ | $732.32 | $732.32 | +$0 | 62% 3895-2356 (6251) |
Invested
$10,703.12
Value
$10.9K
PnL
+$180
Record
53%
41-36 (77)
Invested
$5,082.77
Value
$5.1K
PnL
+$0
Record
54%
15474-12956 (28430)
VeryLucky888CTRInvested
$3,968.27
Value
$3.4K
PnL
-$49.86
Record
58%
37579-27344 (64923)
Invested
$732.32
Value
$732.32
PnL
+$0
Record
62%
3895-2356 (6251)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
54.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.