Spread: Cowboys (-2.5)

7 of 9 top Polymarket traders hold Eagles (78%) · Eagles at 56¢ · $4K held · ended Oct 27

Cowboys44¢Eagles56¢Ended Tue, Oct 27, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Eagles

Consensus Traders

Eagles 78%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$4.3K

Combined PnL

$210.72

Smart Money Entry

42.7¢ → 56¢

+31% since entry · 7 traders

Research grade

NeutralEagles at 56%

No measured edge either way. The plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −4.8 % a trade after costs (n 10,051, 95 % CI −6.5 to −3.1 %).

Spread or totalSpreads and totals: −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Side priced 50–60¢0.50–0.70 lost −3.2 % a trade pooled (n 3,834).

Backtest of Oct 22 2026: one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees. The grade never goes above “Research candidate”: no rule passed the multiple-testing check. It is not a forecast and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Eagles

7 of 9 top traders (78%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed2 hold an outcome priced under 50%1 small position dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Cowboys44%

Eagles56%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Eagles7 traders

Total Value$2.1K

Total Shares4,197

Combined PnL+$239.4

Cowboys2 traders

Total Value$888.24

Total Shares1,431

Combined PnL-$28.68

Eagles — 78%Cowboys — 22%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
AN Anon455ARB<$100	Cowboysavg 52¢	$1.3K	$1.3K	-$2.69	56% 2433-1896 (4329)
└ Cowboys leg	Cowboysavg 52¢	$834.7	$778.41	-$120.49
└ Eagles leg	Eaglesavg 40.4¢	$428.61	$546.41	+$117.8
UP UpTheBlues	Eaglesavg 48¢	$942.88	$1.1K	+$114.53	59% 43329-29788 (73117)
HO HomeRunHazardCTR	Cowboysavg 64.9¢	$770.96	$754.58	-$16.38	54% 16251-13613 (29864)
JU justaluckydude	Eaglesavg 37.5¢	$341.33	$417.21	+$75.88	53% 9987-8708 (18695)
AV averagejoetraders	Eaglesavg 37.9¢	$195	$192.83	-$2.17	57% 503-382 (885)
RN1	Eaglesavg 37¢	$134.26	$187.36	+$47.1	54% 54359-46301 (100660)
TA takeormakeCTR	Cowboysavg 60.1¢	$145.96	$133.66	-$12.3	54% 3607-3130 (6737)
0X 0x84e01e855165C5d56DE153c96DCC3B9bCe727F3D-1782704499041	Eaglesavg 39¢	$125	$116.99	-$8.01	58% 179-127 (306)
AD adururu	Eaglesavg 40¢	$97.39	$109.69	+$12.3	54% 341-291 (632)
NA NatoAlfista<$100	Eaglesavg 50¢	$22.22	$22	-$0.22	50% 3628-3599 (7227)

Anon455ARB<$100

Cowboys

Invested

$1,263.31

Value

$1.3K

PnL

-$2.69

Record

56%

2433-1896 (4329)

Both legs:

Cowboys$834.752¢-$120.49

Eagles$428.6140.4¢+$117.8

UpTheBlues

Eagles

Invested

$942.88

Value

$1.1K

PnL

+$114.53

Record

59%

43329-29788 (73117)

HomeRunHazardCTR

Cowboys

Invested

$770.96

Value

$754.58

PnL

-$16.38

Record

54%

16251-13613 (29864)

justaluckydude

Eagles

Invested

$341.33

Value

$417.21

PnL

+$75.88

Record

53%

9987-8708 (18695)

averagejoetraders

Eagles

Invested

$195

Value

$192.83

PnL

-$2.17

Record

57%

503-382 (885)

RN1

Eagles

Invested

$134.26

Value

$187.36

PnL

+$47.1

Record

54%

54359-46301 (100660)

takeormakeCTR

Cowboys

Invested

$145.96

Value

$133.66

PnL

-$12.3

Record

54%

3607-3130 (6737)

0x84e01e855165C5d56DE153c96DCC3B9bCe727F3D-1782704499041

Eagles

Invested

$125

Value

$116.99

PnL

-$8.01

Record

58%

179-127 (306)

adururu

Eagles

Invested

$97.39

Value

$109.69

PnL

+$12.3

Record

54%

341-291 (632)

NatoAlfista<$100

Eagles

Invested

$22.22

Value

$22

PnL

-$0.22

Record

50%

3628-3599 (7227)

Research grade

NeutralEagles at 56%

No measured edge either way. The plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −4.8 % a trade after costs (n 10,051, 95 % CI −6.5 to −3.1 %).

Spread or totalSpreads and totals: −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Side priced 50–60¢0.50–0.70 lost −3.2 % a trade pooled (n 3,834).

Smart Money Signal

Eagles

7 of 9 top traders (78%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed2 hold an outcome priced under 50%1 small position dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Eagles wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance58.2%

56.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$71.75

Max Loss

-$100.00

171.7

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.