Spread: Cowboys (-1.5)

3 of 4 top Polymarket traders hold Cowboys (75%) · Cowboys at 76¢ · $4K held · ended Oct 27

Cowboys76¢Eagles24¢Ended Tue, Oct 27, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Cowboys

Consensus Traders

Cowboys 75%

Total Value

$4.0K

Combined PnL

-$534.4

Smart Money Entry

49.4¢ → 76¢

+54% since entry · 3 traders

Research grade

NeutralCowboys at 76%

No measured edge either way. The plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −4.8 % a trade after costs (n 10,051, 95 % CI −6.5 to −3.1 %).

Spread or totalSpreads and totals: −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Fewer than 5 holdersEvery backtest needed 5+ holders; with fewer nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)0.70–0.90 was about break-even after costs, +0.4 % a trade (n 4,327); 0.60–0.95 with 70 %+ and $10k+ +2.9 % (n 955). The consensus beats its price by 2–3 points here, about what the costs take.

Backtest of Oct 22 2026: one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees. The grade never goes above “Research candidate”: no rule passed the multiple-testing check. It is not a forecast and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Cowboys

3 of 4 top traders (75%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%1 small position dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Cowboys76%

Eagles24%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Cowboys3 traders

Total Value$3.3K

Total Shares3,953

Combined PnL+$676.08

Eagles1 trader

Total Value$672.12

Total Shares2,800

Combined PnL$-1.2K

Cowboys — 75%Eagles — 25%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
RN1	Cowboysavg 47¢	$1.7K	$2.1K	+$252.3	54% 54957-46919 (101876)
AN Anon455	Cowboysavg 53.3¢	$736.95	$1.2K	+$423.43	56% 2440-1906 (4346)
JU justaluckydudeCTR	Eaglesavg 58.2¢	$1.6K	$672.12	$-1.2K	54% 10277-8909 (19186)
SH shoemanhere<$100	Cowboysavg 49¢	$0.63	$0.97	+$0.35	56% 7005-5416 (12421)

RN1

Cowboys

Invested

$1,678.67

Value

$2.1K

PnL

+$252.3

Record

54%

54957-46919 (101876)

Anon455

Cowboys

Invested

$736.95

Value

$1.2K

PnL

+$423.43

Record

56%

2440-1906 (4346)

justaluckydudeCTR

Eagles

Invested

$1,630.55

Value

$672.12

PnL

$-1.2K

Record

54%

10277-8909 (19186)

shoemanhere<$100

Cowboys

Invested

$0.63

Value

$0.97

PnL

+$0.35

Record

56%

7005-5416 (12421)

Research grade

NeutralCowboys at 76%

No measured edge either way. The plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −4.8 % a trade after costs (n 10,051, 95 % CI −6.5 to −3.1 %).

Spread or totalSpreads and totals: −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Fewer than 5 holdersEvery backtest needed 5+ holders; with fewer nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)0.70–0.90 was about break-even after costs, +0.4 % a trade (n 4,327); 0.60–0.95 with 70 %+ and $10k+ +2.9 % (n 955). The consensus beats its price by 2–3 points here, about what the costs take.

Smart Money Signal

Cowboys

3 of 4 top traders (75%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%1 small position dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Cowboys wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance77.9%

76.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.9¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$28.39

Max Loss

-$100.00

128.4

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.