Spread: Cowboys (-10.5)
6 of 7 top Polymarket traders hold Eagles (86%) · Eagles at 70¢ · $55K held · ends Oct 27
⚖️
Neutral
Eagles
7
Eagles 86%
$55.5K
-$1.58
70.3¢ → 69.5¢
-1% since entry · 6 traders
Research grade
NeutralEagles at 70%
No measured edge either way. The plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −4.8 % a trade after costs (n 10,051, 95 % CI −6.5 to −3.1 %).
- Spread or totalSpreads and totals: −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
- Favourite (60–95¢)0.70–0.90 was about break-even after costs, +0.4 % a trade (n 4,327); 0.60–0.95 with 70 %+ and $10k+ +2.9 % (n 955). The consensus beats its price by 2–3 points here, about what the costs take.
Backtest of Oct 22 2026: one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees. The grade never goes above “Research candidate”: no rule passed the multiple-testing check. It is not a forecast and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
6 of 7 top traders (86%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
6 traders
Top 2 hold 66%
Freshness
Fresh
0h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
86% of non-arb traders are on Eagles. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 66% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
HO HomeRunHazard | Eaglesavg 70.6¢ | $32.0K | $22.3K | -$351.92 | 55% 13724-11269 (24993) |
 VeryLucky888 | Eaglesavg 70.2¢ | $9.1K | $9.1K | -$30 | 58% 36504-26536 (63040) |
TA takeormakeCTR | Cowboysavg 29¢ | $25.3K | $7.7K | +$380.33 | 56% 3316-2649 (5965) |
0X 0xfB07F48542d2b655e9D0Bf1cC92a8a6Feee8e2cC-1782415802542 | Eaglesavg 70¢ | $7.3K | $7.3K | -$0 | 47% 2202-2436 (4638) |
LU LuckyLoo | Eaglesavg 70¢ | $6.7K | $6.7K | +$0 | 50% 8166-8189 (16355) |
BA Bagwell306 | Eaglesavg 70¢ | $2.1K | $2.1K | +$0 | 66% 3377-1702 (5079) |
SL slimjoe | Eaglesavg 70¢ | $210 | $210 | +$0 | 51% 5702-5519 (11221) |
Invested
$32,026.73
Value
$22.3K
PnL
-$351.92
Record
55%
13724-11269 (24993)
VeryLucky888Invested
$9,140.38
Value
$9.1K
PnL
-$30
Record
58%
36504-26536 (63040)
Invested
$25,343.75
Value
$7.7K
PnL
+$380.33
Record
56%
3316-2649 (5965)
Invested
$7,350
Value
$7.3K
PnL
-$0
Record
47%
2202-2436 (4638)
Invested
$6,703.69
Value
$6.7K
PnL
+$0
Record
50%
8166-8189 (16355)
Invested
$2,100
Value
$2.1K
PnL
+$0
Record
66%
3377-1702 (5079)
Invested
$210
Value
$210
PnL
+$0
Record
51%
5702-5519 (11221)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
69.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.0¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.