1H Spread: Cowboys (-2.5)

2 of 4 top Polymarket traders hold Eagles (50%) · Eagles at 71¢ · $9K held · ended Oct 27

Cowboys29¢Eagles71¢Ended Tue, Oct 27, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Eagles

Consensus Traders

Eagles 50%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$8.7K

Combined PnL

$1.9

Smart Money Entry

49¢ → 71¢

+45% since entry · 2 traders

Research grade

NeutralEagles at 71%

No measured edge either way. The plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −4.8 % a trade after costs (n 10,051, 95 % CI −6.5 to −3.1 %).

Spread or totalSpreads and totals: −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)0.70–0.90 was about break-even after costs, +0.4 % a trade (n 4,327); 0.60–0.95 with 70 %+ and $10k+ +2.9 % (n 955). The consensus beats its price by 2–3 points here, about what the costs take.

Backtest of Oct 22 2026: one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees. The grade never goes above “Research candidate”: no rule passed the multiple-testing check. It is not a forecast and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Eagles

2 of 4 top traders (50%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed2 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Cowboys29%

Eagles71%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Cowboys2 traders

Total Value$4.0K

Total Shares6,742

Combined PnL+$78.16

Eagles2 traders

Total Value$3.8K

Total Shares7,805

Combined PnL-$76.26

Cowboys — 50%Eagles — 50%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
MO mooseborzoiiCTR	Cowboysavg 51¢	$3.9K	$4.0K	+$78.16	50% 1084-1075 (2159)
FO Forecastication2	Eaglesavg 49¢	$3.8K	$3.7K	-$77.61	50% 6607-6589 (13196)
UP UpTheBluesARB<$100	Eaglesavg 44.2¢	$785.2	$892.9	+$107.7	59% 43329-29788 (73117)
└ Eagles leg	Eaglesavg 44.2¢	$523.25	$615.59	+$92.34
└ Cowboys leg	Cowboysavg 45.3¢	$261.95	$277.31	+$15.36
VeryLucky888<$100	Eaglesavg 46¢	$31.16	$32.52	+$1.35	58% 39668-28654 (68322)
0X 0x8g68hBa8tyH1946Bhjb674g3fuyUIGYUi4uhflksCTR<$100	Cowboysavg 52¢	$15.08	$15.08	+$0	54% 2869-2443 (5312)

mooseborzoiiCTR

Cowboys

Invested

$3,942.04

Value

$4.0K

PnL

+$78.16

Record

50%

1084-1075 (2159)

Forecastication2

Eagles

Invested

$3,797.61

Value

$3.7K

PnL

-$77.61

Record

50%

6607-6589 (13196)

UpTheBluesARB<$100

Eagles

Invested

$785.2

Value

$892.9

PnL

+$107.7

Record

59%

43329-29788 (73117)

Both legs:

Eagles$523.2544.2¢+$92.34

Cowboys$261.9545.3¢+$15.36

VeryLucky888<$100

Eagles

Invested

$31.16

Value

$32.52

PnL

+$1.35

Record

58%

39668-28654 (68322)

0x8g68hBa8tyH1946Bhjb674g3fuyUIGYUi4uhflksCTR<$100

Cowboys

Invested

$15.08

Value

$15.08

PnL

+$0

Record

54%

2869-2443 (5312)

Research grade

NeutralEagles at 71%

No measured edge either way. The plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −4.8 % a trade after costs (n 10,051, 95 % CI −6.5 to −3.1 %).

Spread or totalSpreads and totals: −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)0.70–0.90 was about break-even after costs, +0.4 % a trade (n 4,327); 0.60–0.95 with 70 %+ and $10k+ +2.9 % (n 955). The consensus beats its price by 2–3 points here, about what the costs take.

Smart Money Signal

Eagles

2 of 4 top traders (50%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed2 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

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EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Eagles wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance73.0%

71.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.0¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$36.97

Max Loss

-$100.00

137.0

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.