Cowboys vs. Eagles
5 of 7 top Polymarket traders hold Cowboys (71%) · Cowboys at 67¢ · $145K held · ends Oct 27
⚖️
Neutral
Cowboys
7
Cowboys 71%
$144.7K
-$931.61
66.9¢ → 66.5¢
-1% since entry · 5 traders
Research grade
NeutralCowboys at 67%
No measured edge either way. The plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −4.8 % a trade after costs (n 10,051, 95 % CI −6.5 to −3.1 %).
- Favourite (60–95¢)0.70–0.90 was about break-even after costs, +0.4 % a trade (n 4,327); 0.60–0.95 with 70 %+ and $10k+ +2.9 % (n 955). The consensus beats its price by 2–3 points here, about what the costs take.
Backtest of Oct 22 2026: one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees. The grade never goes above “Research candidate”: no rule passed the multiple-testing check. It is not a forecast and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
5 of 7 top traders (71%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
5 traders
Top 2 hold 97%
Freshness
Fresh
0h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
71% of non-arb traders are on Cowboys. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 97% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
CH chubbytoro | Cowboysavg 67¢ | $134.0K | $132.0K | $-1.0K | 47% 72-82 (154) |
SB sbimbg | Cowboysavg 66¢ | $8.2K | $8.2K | +$61.98 | 68% 2711-1296 (4007) |
HE hedgevaultmainnet1 | Cowboysavg 67¢ | $1.7K | $1.7K | -$12.98 | 53% 1975-1728 (3703) |
LI lissartter | Cowboysavg 67¢ | $1.3K | $1.3K | -$10 | 42% 4998-6886 (11884) |
 VeryLucky888 | Cowboysavg 64.6¢ | $716.47 | $731.83 | +$32 | 58% 37020-26943 (63963) |
AA aaabbbCTR | Eaglesavg 33¢ | $660 | $670 | +$10 | 50% 436-435 (871) |
 RollAwayTheDewCTR | Eaglesavg 37.6¢ | $116.06 | $103.44 | -$12.62 | 53% 265-238 (503) |
Invested
$134,000
Value
$132.0K
PnL
$-1.0K
Record
47%
72-82 (154)
Invested
$8,181.68
Value
$8.2K
PnL
+$61.98
Record
68%
2711-1296 (4007)
Invested
$1,738.72
Value
$1.7K
PnL
-$12.98
Record
53%
1975-1728 (3703)
Invested
$1,340
Value
$1.3K
PnL
-$10
Record
42%
4998-6886 (11884)
VeryLucky888Invested
$716.47
Value
$731.83
PnL
+$32
Record
58%
37020-26943 (63963)
Invested
$660
Value
$670
PnL
+$10
Record
50%
436-435 (871)
RollAwayTheDewCTRInvested
$116.06
Value
$103.44
PnL
-$12.62
Record
53%
265-238 (503)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
66.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.1¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.