Browns vs. Titans: O/U 38.5
2 of 3 top Polymarket traders hold Under (67%) · Under at 55¢ · $9K held · ends Oct 25
⚖️
Neutral
Under
3
Under 67%
$9.1K
$25
54.7¢ → 55¢
+0% since entry · 2 traders
Research grade
NeutralUnder at 55%
No measured edge either way. The plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −4.8 % a trade after costs (n 10,051, 95 % CI −6.5 to −3.1 %).
- Spread or totalSpreads and totals: −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
- Fewer than 5 holdersEvery backtest needed 5+ holders; with fewer nothing was measured.
- Side priced 50–60¢0.50–0.70 lost −3.2 % a trade pooled (n 3,834).
Backtest of Oct 22 2026: one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees. The grade never goes above “Research candidate”: no rule passed the multiple-testing check. It is not a forecast and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
2 of 3 top traders (67%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 JustADonk | Underavg 55¢ | $5.5K | $5.5K | +$0 | 55% 816-662 (1478) |
FO Forecastication2CTR | Overavg 45¢ | $3.1K | $3.1K | -$0 | 61% 4343-2794 (7137) |
0X 0xAbF543512f33E2D754ada028a689610139Cccfeb-1760974401494 | Underavg 52¢ | $520 | $545 | +$25 | 55% 1167-961 (2128) |
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
55.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.