Spread: Titans (-5.5)

5 of 8 top Polymarket traders hold Browns (63%) · Browns at 89¢ · $4K held · ended Oct 25

Titans12¢Browns88¢Ended Sun, Oct 25, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Browns

Consensus Traders

Browns 63%

Total Value

$3.7K

Combined PnL

-$367.41

Smart Money Entry

66.1¢ → 88.5¢

+34% since entry · 5 traders

Research grade

NeutralBrowns at 89%

No measured edge either way. The plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −4.8 % a trade after costs (n 10,051, 95 % CI −6.5 to −3.1 %).

Spread or totalSpreads and totals: −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Favourite (60–95¢)0.70–0.90 was about break-even after costs, +0.4 % a trade (n 4,327); 0.60–0.95 with 70 %+ and $10k+ +2.9 % (n 955). The consensus beats its price by 2–3 points here, about what the costs take.

Backtest of Oct 22 2026: one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees. The grade never goes above “Research candidate”: no rule passed the multiple-testing check. It is not a forecast and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Browns

5 of 8 top traders (63%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Titans12%

Browns89%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Browns5 traders

Total Value$3.2K

Total Shares4,117

Combined PnL+$57.26

Titans3 traders

Total Value$529.8

Total Shares1,762

Combined PnL-$424.67

Browns — 63%Titans — 37%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
AN Anon455	Brownsavg 69.5¢	$1.4K	$1.4K	+$50	56% 2044-1603 (3647)
HO HomeRunHazard	Brownsavg 57¢	$1.3K	$1.3K	+$7.66	55% 12164-10045 (22209)
UP UpTheBluesCTR	Titansavg 54¢	$846.45	$438.9	-$407.55	67% 31285-15084 (46369)
LU LuckyLoo	Brownsavg 71¢	$401.72	$407.38	+$5.66	50% 7794-7854 (15648)
0X 0xfC0847fe2Ea938D6e2624650eB29eF8d8142A137-1771999665274<$100	Brownsavg 95.3¢	$98.88	$93.36	-$5.52	55% 395-317 (712)
TA takeormakeCTR<$100	Titansavg 59.7¢	$79.35	$73.82	-$5.53	55% 3020-2458 (5478)
JU justaluckydudeCTR<$100	Titansavg 47¢	$28.67	$17.08	-$11.59	52% 6814-6216 (13030)
PA pauleta23<$100	Brownsavg 95¢	$10	$9.47	-$0.53	71% 17700-7191 (24891)

Anon455

Browns

Invested

$1,390

Value

$1.4K

PnL

+$50

Record

56%

2044-1603 (3647)

HomeRunHazard

Browns

Invested

$1,250.73

Value

$1.3K

PnL

+$7.66

Record

55%

12164-10045 (22209)

UpTheBluesCTR

Titans

Invested

$846.45

Value

$438.9

PnL

-$407.55

Record

67%

31285-15084 (46369)

LuckyLoo

Browns

Invested

$401.72

Value

$407.38

PnL

+$5.66

Record

50%

7794-7854 (15648)

0xfC0847fe2Ea938D6e2624650eB29eF8d8142A137-1771999665274<$100

Browns

Invested

$98.88

Value

$93.36

PnL

-$5.52

Record

55%

395-317 (712)

takeormakeCTR<$100

Titans

Invested

$79.35

Value

$73.82

PnL

-$5.53

Record

55%

3020-2458 (5478)

justaluckydudeCTR<$100

Titans

Invested

$28.67

Value

$17.08

PnL

-$11.59

Record

52%

6814-6216 (13030)

pauleta23<$100

Browns

Invested

$10

Value

$9.47

PnL

-$0.53

Record

71%

17700-7191 (24891)

Research grade

NeutralBrowns at 89%

No measured edge either way. The plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −4.8 % a trade after costs (n 10,051, 95 % CI −6.5 to −3.1 %).

Spread or totalSpreads and totals: −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Favourite (60–95¢)0.70–0.90 was about break-even after costs, +0.4 % a trade (n 4,327); 0.60–0.95 with 70 %+ and $10k+ +2.9 % (n 955). The consensus beats its price by 2–3 points here, about what the costs take.

Smart Money Signal

Browns

5 of 8 top traders (63%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Browns wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance90.0%

88.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.5¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$11.15

Max Loss

-$100.00

111.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.