Spread: Titans (-4.5)

4 of 4 top Polymarket traders hold Browns (100%) · Browns at 92¢ · $7K held · ended Oct 25

Titans8¢Browns92¢Ended Sun, Oct 25, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Browns

Consensus Traders

Browns 100%

Total Value

$7.0K

Combined PnL

$1.7K

Smart Money Entry

68.8¢ → 92¢

+34% since entry · 4 traders

Research grade

NeutralBrowns at 92%

No measured edge either way. The plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −4.8 % a trade after costs (n 10,051, 95 % CI −6.5 to −3.1 %).

Spread or totalSpreads and totals: −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Fewer than 5 holdersEvery backtest needed 5+ holders; with fewer nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)0.70–0.90 was about break-even after costs, +0.4 % a trade (n 4,327); 0.60–0.95 with 70 %+ and $10k+ +2.9 % (n 955). The consensus beats its price by 2–3 points here, about what the costs take.

Backtest of Oct 22 2026: one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees. The grade never goes above “Research candidate”: no rule passed the multiple-testing check. It is not a forecast and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Browns

4 of 4 top traders (100%)1 small position dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Titans8%

Browns92%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Browns4 traders

Total Value$7.0K

Total Shares7,254

Combined PnL+$1.7K

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
RN1	Brownsavg 47¢	$1.9K	$3.7K	+$1.8K	55% 44092-36295 (80387)
MY myxi	Brownsavg 91.6¢	$3.1K	$3.2K	-$55	67% 272-133 (405)
0X 0xfC0847fe2Ea938D6e2624650eB29eF8d8142A137-1771999665274	Brownsavg 94.6¢	$111.92	$108.87	+$1.09	55% 395-319 (714)
PA pauleta23<$100	Brownsavg 94¢	$10	$9.79	-$0.21	71% 17969-7285 (25254)

RN1

Browns

Invested

$1,901.17

Value

$3.7K

PnL

+$1.8K

Record

55%

44092-36295 (80387)

myxi

Browns

Invested

$3,123.19

Value

$3.2K

PnL

-$55

Record

67%

272-133 (405)

0xfC0847fe2Ea938D6e2624650eB29eF8d8142A137-1771999665274

Browns

Invested

$111.92

Value

$108.87

PnL

+$1.09

Record

55%

395-319 (714)

pauleta23<$100

Browns

Invested

$10

Value

$9.79

PnL

-$0.21

Record

71%

17969-7285 (25254)

Research grade

NeutralBrowns at 92%

No measured edge either way. The plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −4.8 % a trade after costs (n 10,051, 95 % CI −6.5 to −3.1 %).

Spread or totalSpreads and totals: −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Fewer than 5 holdersEvery backtest needed 5+ holders; with fewer nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)0.70–0.90 was about break-even after costs, +0.4 % a trade (n 4,327); 0.60–0.95 with 70 %+ and $10k+ +2.9 % (n 955). The consensus beats its price by 2–3 points here, about what the costs take.

Smart Money Signal

Browns

4 of 4 top traders (100%)1 small position dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Browns wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance93.3%

92.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.3¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$7.15

Max Loss

-$100.00

107.2

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.