Spread: Titans (-3.5)

7 of 10 top Polymarket traders hold Browns (70%) · Browns at 51¢ · $58K held · ended Oct 25

Titans49¢Browns51¢Ended Sun, Oct 25, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Browns

Consensus Traders

Browns 70%

Total Value

$58.5K

Combined PnL

$-46.2K

Smart Money Entry

66.2¢ → 51¢

-23% since entry · 7 traders

Research grade

NeutralBrowns at 51%

No measured edge either way. The plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −4.8 % a trade after costs (n 10,051, 95 % CI −6.5 to −3.1 %).

Spread or totalSpreads and totals: −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Quality net +3 or moreNet +3 when the consensus formed: +7.2 % a trade pooled (n 214 + 144, 95 % CI +0.9 to +13.6), +5.7 % at a 2¢ half-spread. Fragile: the 5 best events give 66–75 % of the profit.
Side priced 50–60¢0.50–0.70 lost −3.2 % a trade pooled (n 3,834).

Backtest of Oct 22 2026: one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees. The grade never goes above “Research candidate”: no rule passed the multiple-testing check. It is not a forecast and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Browns

7 of 10 top traders (70%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Titans49%

Browns51%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Browns7 traders

Total Value$58.1K

Total Shares157,368

Combined PnL$-46.3K

Titans3 traders

Total Value$411.08

Total Shares609

Combined PnL+$89.75

Browns — 70%Titans — 30%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

7 traders

Top 2 hold 82%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

100% of non-arb traders are on Browns. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 82% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleBrowns 100% · 4

Aligned

sharpBrowns 100% · 2

Aligned

ctrBrowns 100% · 3

Aligned

Hand-pickedBrowns 100% · 2

Aligned

Top 1000Browns 100% · 5

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
HO HomeRunHazard	Brownsavg 66.8¢	$68.2K	$33.2K	$-35.0K	55% 12164-10045 (22209)
UP UpTheBlues	Brownsavg 67¢	$22.0K	$16.8K	$-5.2K	67% 31285-15084 (46369)
VeryLucky888	Brownsavg 67¢	$6.7K	$3.3K	$-3.5K	58% 31904-23124 (55028)
RN1	Brownsavg 51.8¢	$3.3K	$2.8K	-$532.09	55% 43817-36057 (79874)
BA Bagwell306	Brownsavg 67¢	$4.0K	$1.9K	$-2.1K	67% 3176-1556 (4732)
0X 0x760907C8840491c8C86fdDB843D3f1d801786C4e-1771959662080CTR	Titansavg 52¢	$260	$337.5	+$77.5	51% 998-954 (1952)
FO Forecastication2	Brownsavg 53.2¢	$143.56	$87.75	-$55.81	61% 4558-2887 (7445)
TA takeormakeCTR<$100	Titansavg 50.3¢	$35.2	$47.25	+$12.05	55% 3020-2458 (5478)
JU justaluckydudeCTR<$100	Titansavg 67¢	$26.13	$26.33	+$0.2	52% 6814-6216 (13030)
AN Anon455<$100	Brownsavg 65¢	$0.78	$0.39	-$0.38	56% 2044-1603 (3647)

HomeRunHazard

Browns

Invested

$68,167.77

Value

$33.2K

PnL

$-35.0K

Record

55%

12164-10045 (22209)

UpTheBlues

Browns

Invested

$22,018.98

Value

$16.8K

PnL

$-5.2K

Record

67%

31285-15084 (46369)

VeryLucky888

Browns

Invested

$6,710.92

Value

$3.3K

PnL

$-3.5K

Record

58%

31904-23124 (55028)

RN1

Browns

Invested

$3,310.64

Value

$2.8K

PnL

-$532.09

Record

55%

43817-36057 (79874)

Bagwell306

Browns

Invested

$4,020

Value

$1.9K

PnL

$-2.1K

Record

67%

3176-1556 (4732)

0x760907C8840491c8C86fdDB843D3f1d801786C4e-1771959662080CTR

Titans

Invested

$260

Value

$337.5

PnL

+$77.5

Record

51%

998-954 (1952)

Forecastication2

Browns

Invested

$143.56

Value

$87.75

PnL

-$55.81

Record

61%

4558-2887 (7445)

takeormakeCTR<$100

Titans

Invested

$35.2

Value

$47.25

PnL

+$12.05

Record

55%

3020-2458 (5478)

justaluckydudeCTR<$100

Titans

Invested

$26.13

Value

$26.33

PnL

+$0.2

Record

52%

6814-6216 (13030)

Anon455<$100

Browns

Invested

$0.78

Value

$0.39

PnL

-$0.38

Record

56%

2044-1603 (3647)

Research grade

NeutralBrowns at 51%

No measured edge either way. The plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −4.8 % a trade after costs (n 10,051, 95 % CI −6.5 to −3.1 %).

Spread or totalSpreads and totals: −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Quality net +3 or moreNet +3 when the consensus formed: +7.2 % a trade pooled (n 214 + 144, 95 % CI +0.9 to +13.6), +5.7 % at a 2¢ half-spread. Fragile: the 5 best events give 66–75 % of the profit.
Side priced 50–60¢0.50–0.70 lost −3.2 % a trade pooled (n 3,834).

Smart Money Signal

Browns

7 of 10 top traders (70%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

7 traders

Top 2 hold 82%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

100% of non-arb traders are on Browns. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 82% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleBrowns 100% · 4

Aligned

sharpBrowns 100% · 2

Aligned

ctrBrowns 100% · 3

Aligned

Hand-pickedBrowns 100% · 2

Aligned

Top 1000Browns 100% · 5

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Browns wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance53.2%

51.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$87.80

Max Loss

-$100.00

187.8

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.