Spread: Titans (-2.5)

3 of 4 top Polymarket traders hold Browns (75%) · Browns at 72¢ · $3K held · ended Oct 25

Titans28¢Browns72¢Ended Sun, Oct 25, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Browns

Consensus Traders

Browns 75%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$2.8K

Combined PnL

$379.99

Smart Money Entry

36.9¢ → 72¢

+95% since entry · 3 traders

Research grade

NeutralBrowns at 72%

No measured edge either way. The plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −4.8 % a trade after costs (n 10,051, 95 % CI −6.5 to −3.1 %).

Spread or totalSpreads and totals: −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Favourite (60–95¢)0.70–0.90 was about break-even after costs, +0.4 % a trade (n 4,327); 0.60–0.95 with 70 %+ and $10k+ +2.9 % (n 955). The consensus beats its price by 2–3 points here, about what the costs take.

Backtest of Oct 22 2026: one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees. The grade never goes above “Research candidate”: no rule passed the multiple-testing check. It is not a forecast and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Browns

3 of 4 top traders (75%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed1 holds an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Titans28%

Browns72%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Browns3 traders

Total Value$1.8K

Total Shares3,598

Combined PnL+$403.99

Titans1 trader

Total Value$41

Total Shares100

Combined PnL-$24

Browns — 75%Titans — 25%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
RN1	Brownsavg 36.9¢	$1.4K	$1.8K	+$401.18	55% 43817-36057 (79874)
HO HomeRunHazardARB<$100	Titansavg 61.5¢	$1.1K	$976.39	-$137.98	55% 12164-10045 (22209)
└ Titans leg	Titansavg 61.5¢	$826.77	$698.95	-$127.82
└ Browns leg	Brownsavg 49.8¢	$287.6	$277.44	-$10.16
JU justaluckydudeCTR<$100	Titansavg 65¢	$65	$41	-$24	52% 6814-6216 (13030)
PA pauleta23<$100	Brownsavg 43¢	$3.68	$5.05	+$1.37	71% 17700-7191 (24891)
AN Anon455<$100	Brownsavg 35¢	$2.1	$3.54	+$1.44	56% 2044-1603 (3647)

RN1

Browns

Invested

$1,362.01

Value

$1.8K

PnL

+$401.18

Record

55%

43817-36057 (79874)

HomeRunHazardARB<$100

Titans

Invested

$1,114.37

Value

$976.39

PnL

-$137.98

Record

55%

12164-10045 (22209)

Both legs:

Titans$826.7761.5¢-$127.82

Browns$287.649.8¢-$10.16

justaluckydudeCTR<$100

Titans

Invested

$65

Value

$41

PnL

-$24

Record

52%

6814-6216 (13030)

pauleta23<$100

Browns

Invested

$3.68

Value

$5.05

PnL

+$1.37

Record

71%

17700-7191 (24891)

Anon455<$100

Browns

Invested

$2.1

Value

$3.54

PnL

+$1.44

Record

56%

2044-1603 (3647)

Research grade

NeutralBrowns at 72%

No measured edge either way. The plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −4.8 % a trade after costs (n 10,051, 95 % CI −6.5 to −3.1 %).

Spread or totalSpreads and totals: −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Favourite (60–95¢)0.70–0.90 was about break-even after costs, +0.4 % a trade (n 4,327); 0.60–0.95 with 70 %+ and $10k+ +2.9 % (n 955). The consensus beats its price by 2–3 points here, about what the costs take.

Smart Money Signal

Browns

3 of 4 top traders (75%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed1 holds an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Browns wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance74.0%

72.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.0¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$35.16

Max Loss

-$100.00

135.2

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.