Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Browns, while the market favors Titans (67%). 3 of 4 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.

Spread: Browns (-1.5)

3 of 4 top Polymarket traders hold Browns (75%) · Browns at 33¢ · $800 held · ended Oct 25

Browns33¢Titans67¢Ended Sun, Oct 25, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Browns

Consensus Traders

Browns 75%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$800.46

Combined PnL

-$287.39

Smart Money Entry

50.9¢ → 33¢

-35% since entry · 3 traders

Research grade

NeutralBrowns at 33%

No measured edge either way. The plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −4.8 % a trade after costs (n 10,051, 95 % CI −6.5 to −3.1 %).

Spread or totalSpreads and totals: −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Side priced 30–50¢0.30–0.50 lost −6.5 % a trade pooled (n 2,793), a little worse than the plain consensus.

Backtest of Oct 22 2026: one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees. The grade never goes above “Research candidate”: no rule passed the multiple-testing check. It is not a forecast and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Browns

3 of 4 top traders (75%)Underdog side (market favors Titans 67%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed3 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Browns33%

Titans67%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Browns3 traders

Total Value$436.39

Total Shares1,179

Combined PnL-$348.96

Titans1 trader

Total Value$261.75

Total Shares415

Combined PnL+$61.57

Browns — 75%Titans — 25%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
AN Anon455CTR	Brownsavg 51¢	$510	$370	-$325	56% 2044-1603 (3647)
VeryLucky888	Titansavg 48.2¢	$200.18	$261.75	+$61.57	58% 31904-23124 (55028)
JU justaluckydudeARB<$100	Titansavg 75.9¢	$107.54	$102.32	-$5.22	52% 6814-6216 (13030)
└ Titans leg	Titansavg 75.9¢	$81.25	$79.18	-$2.07
└ Browns leg	Brownsavg 29.5¢	$26.29	$23.14	-$3.15
RN1CTR<$100	Brownsavg 50¢	$58.22	$43.08	-$15.14	55% 43817-36057 (79874)
LE LeLynxMalynxCTR<$100	Brownsavg 51¢	$32.13	$23.31	-$8.82	54% 13884-11640 (25524)

Anon455CTR

Browns

Invested

$510

Value

$370

PnL

-$325

Record

56%

2044-1603 (3647)

VeryLucky888

Titans

Invested

$200.18

Value

$261.75

PnL

+$61.57

Record

58%

31904-23124 (55028)

justaluckydudeARB<$100

Titans

Invested

$107.54

Value

$102.32

PnL

-$5.22

Record

52%

6814-6216 (13030)

Both legs:

Titans$81.2575.9¢-$2.07

Browns$26.2929.5¢-$3.15

RN1CTR<$100

Browns

Invested

$58.22

Value

$43.08

PnL

-$15.14

Record

55%

43817-36057 (79874)

LeLynxMalynxCTR<$100

Browns

Invested

$32.13

Value

$23.31

PnL

-$8.82

Record

54%

13884-11640 (25524)

Research grade

NeutralBrowns at 33%

No measured edge either way. The plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −4.8 % a trade after costs (n 10,051, 95 % CI −6.5 to −3.1 %).

Spread or totalSpreads and totals: −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Side priced 30–50¢0.30–0.50 lost −6.5 % a trade pooled (n 2,793), a little worse than the plain consensus.

Smart Money Signal

Browns

3 of 4 top traders (75%)Underdog side (market favors Titans 67%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed3 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Browns wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance35.1%

33.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.1¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$184.72

Max Loss

-$100.00

284.7

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.