Smart money holds the underdog side
Most tracked traders hold Over, while the market favors Under (56%). 1 of 3 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.
Elic Ayomanor: Receptions O/U 1.5
1 of 3 top Polymarket traders hold Over (33%) · Over at 44¢ · $11K held · ends Oct 25
⚖️
Neutral
Over
3
Over 33%
$11.0K
-$92.66
Research grade
NeutralOver at 44%
No measured edge either way. The plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −4.8 % a trade after costs (n 10,051, 95 % CI −6.5 to −3.1 %).
- Spread or totalSpreads and totals: −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
- Fewer than 5 holdersEvery backtest needed 5+ holders; with fewer nothing was measured.
- Side priced 30–50¢0.30–0.50 lost −6.5 % a trade pooled (n 2,793), a little worse than the plain consensus.
Backtest of Oct 22 2026: one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees. The grade never goes above “Research candidate”: no rule passed the multiple-testing check. It is not a forecast and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
1 of 3 top traders (33%)Underdog side (market favors Under 56%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
MD mde4life1986CTR | Overavg 47.7¢ | $6.0K | $5.5K | -$463.65 | 49% 111-114 (225) |
 Nooserac | Underavg 52.1¢ | $4.6K | $5.0K | +$346.12 | 52% 5261-4836 (10097) |
BO BoomLaLa | Underavg 53.4¢ | $488.47 | $502.13 | +$24.86 | 55% 9065-7466 (16531) |
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
44.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.