Smart money holds the underdog side
Most tracked traders hold Titans, while the market favors Browns (55%). 2 of 3 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.
Browns vs. Titans
2 of 3 top Polymarket traders hold Titans (67%) · Titans at 45¢ · $2K held · ends Oct 25
⚖️
Neutral
Titans
3
Titans 67%
$1.6K
$51.9
45¢ → 45.5¢
+1% since entry · 2 traders
Research grade
NeutralTitans at 45%
No measured edge either way. The plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −4.8 % a trade after costs (n 10,051, 95 % CI −6.5 to −3.1 %).
- Fewer than 5 holdersEvery backtest needed 5+ holders; with fewer nothing was measured.
- Side priced 30–50¢0.30–0.50 lost −6.5 % a trade pooled (n 2,793), a little worse than the plain consensus.
Backtest of Oct 22 2026: one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees. The grade never goes above “Research candidate”: no rule passed the multiple-testing check. It is not a forecast and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
2 of 3 top traders (67%)Underdog side (market favors Browns 55%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 NooseracCTR | Titansavg 45¢ | $1.0K | $1.0K | +$11.51 | 52% 5250-4820 (10070) |
0X 0x0b14cac497137dddea6a2b26e94a6bac931e3ca3 | Brownsavg 50¢ | $435.71 | $474.93 | +$39.21 | 44% 350-443 (793) |
 VeryLucky888CTR | Titansavg 45¢ | $104.94 | $106.12 | +$1.18 | 58% 31536-22821 (54357) |
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
45.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.