Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Over, while the market favors Under (59%). 2 of 6 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Bengals vs. Ravens: O/U 44.5

2 of 6 top Polymarket traders hold Over (33%) · Over at 42¢ · $2K held · ended Oct 25

Over42¢Under58¢Ended Sun, Oct 25, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Over

Consensus Traders

Over 33%

Total Value

$1.6K

Combined PnL

$183.37

Smart Money Entry

29.3¢ → 41.5¢

+41% since entry · 2 traders

Research grade

NeutralOver at 42%

No measured edge either way. The plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −4.8 % a trade after costs (n 10,051, 95 % CI −6.5 to −3.1 %).

Spread or totalSpreads and totals: −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 30–50¢0.30–0.50 lost −6.5 % a trade pooled (n 2,793), a little worse than the plain consensus.

Backtest of Oct 22 2026: one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees. The grade never goes above “Research candidate”: no rule passed the multiple-testing check. It is not a forecast and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Over

2 of 6 top traders (33%)Underdog side (market favors Under 59%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Over42%

Under59%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Over2 traders

Total Value$856.22

Total Shares2,732

Combined PnL+$54.68

Under4 traders

Total Value$704.01

Total Shares1,230

Combined PnL+$128.69

Over — 33%Under — 67%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
RN1CTR	Overavg 26¢	$631.02	$667.43	+$36.41	55% 43817-36057 (79874)
HO HomeRunHazard	Underavg 44.5¢	$394.4	$527.17	+$132.77	55% 12164-10045 (22209)
NA NatoAlfistaCTR	Overavg 56¢	$170.52	$188.79	+$18.27	66% 2856-1504 (4360)
JU justaluckydude	Underavg 64.5¢	$97.12	$103.2	+$6.08	52% 6814-6216 (13030)
AN Anon455<$100	Underavg 44¢	$74.49	$64.33	-$10.16	56% 2044-1603 (3647)
UP UpTheBlues<$100	Underavg 38¢	$9.31	$9.31	+$0	67% 31285-15084 (46369)

RN1CTR

Over

Invested

$631.02

Value

$667.43

PnL

+$36.41

Record

55%

43817-36057 (79874)

HomeRunHazard

Under

Invested

$394.4

Value

$527.17

PnL

+$132.77

Record

55%

12164-10045 (22209)

NatoAlfistaCTR

Over

Invested

$170.52

Value

$188.79

PnL

+$18.27

Record

66%

2856-1504 (4360)

justaluckydude

Under

Invested

$97.12

Value

$103.2

PnL

+$6.08

Record

52%

6814-6216 (13030)

Anon455<$100

Under

Invested

$74.49

Value

$64.33

PnL

-$10.16

Record

56%

2044-1603 (3647)

UpTheBlues<$100

Under

Invested

$9.31

Value

$9.31

PnL

+$0

Record

67%

31285-15084 (46369)

Research grade

NeutralOver at 42%

No measured edge either way. The plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −4.8 % a trade after costs (n 10,051, 95 % CI −6.5 to −3.1 %).

Spread or totalSpreads and totals: −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 30–50¢0.30–0.50 lost −6.5 % a trade pooled (n 2,793), a little worse than the plain consensus.

Smart Money Signal

Over

2 of 6 top traders (33%)Underdog side (market favors Under 59%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Over wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance43.7%

41.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$128.72

Max Loss

-$100.00

228.7

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.