Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Under, while the market favors Over (51%). 4 of 8 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Bengals vs. Ravens: O/U 42.5

4 of 8 top Polymarket traders hold Under (50%) · Under at 50¢ · $802 held · ended Oct 25

Over51¢Under49¢Ended Sun, Oct 25, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Under

Consensus Traders

Under 50%

Total Value

$802.27

Combined PnL

-$22.93

Smart Money Entry

44.9¢ → 49.5¢

+10% since entry · 4 traders

Research grade

NeutralUnder at 50%

No measured edge either way. The plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −4.8 % a trade after costs (n 10,051, 95 % CI −6.5 to −3.1 %).

Spread or totalSpreads and totals: −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 30–50¢0.30–0.50 lost −6.5 % a trade pooled (n 2,793), a little worse than the plain consensus.

Backtest of Oct 22 2026: one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees. The grade never goes above “Research candidate”: no rule passed the multiple-testing check. It is not a forecast and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Under

4 of 8 top traders (50%)Underdog side (market favors Over 51%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Over51%

Under50%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Over4 traders

Total Value$393.17

Total Shares591

Combined PnL+$24.2

Under4 traders

Total Value$409.09

Total Shares1,017

Combined PnL-$47.14

Over — 50%Under — 50%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
0X 0x5b624e3E0426F7AA2Ca57F7451fbcEa4b125D87f-1769796221989	Overavg 66¢	$261.01	$270.9	+$9.89	57% 4484-3315 (7799)
JU justaluckydudeCTR	Underavg 54.3¢	$155.18	$178.75	+$23.57	52% 6814-6216 (13030)
UP UpTheBluesCTR	Underavg 34¢	$121.38	$112.46	-$8.92	67% 31285-15084 (46369)
NA NatoAlfista<$100	Overavg 56¢	$69.58	$85.11	+$15.53	66% 2856-1504 (4360)
HO HomeRunHazardCTR	Underavg 50¢	$125	$78.75	-$46.25	55% 12164-10045 (22209)
RN1CTR<$100	Underavg 44¢	$54.67	$39.14	-$15.53	55% 43817-36057 (79874)
LE LeLynxMalynx<$100	Overavg 65¢	$22.1	$23.29	+$1.19	54% 13884-11640 (25524)
SE seeeeeeb<$100	Overavg 44¢	$16.28	$13.88	-$2.41	48% 340-370 (710)

0x5b624e3E0426F7AA2Ca57F7451fbcEa4b125D87f-1769796221989

Over

Invested

$261.01

Value

$270.9

PnL

+$9.89

Record

57%

4484-3315 (7799)

justaluckydudeCTR

Under

Invested

$155.18

Value

$178.75

PnL

+$23.57

Record

52%

6814-6216 (13030)

UpTheBluesCTR

Under

Invested

$121.38

Value

$112.46

PnL

-$8.92

Record

67%

31285-15084 (46369)

NatoAlfista<$100

Over

Invested

$69.58

Value

$85.11

PnL

+$15.53

Record

66%

2856-1504 (4360)

HomeRunHazardCTR

Under

Invested

$125

Value

$78.75

PnL

-$46.25

Record

55%

12164-10045 (22209)

RN1CTR<$100

Under

Invested

$54.67

Value

$39.14

PnL

-$15.53

Record

55%

43817-36057 (79874)

LeLynxMalynx<$100

Over

Invested

$22.1

Value

$23.29

PnL

+$1.19

Record

54%

13884-11640 (25524)

seeeeeeb<$100

Over

Invested

$16.28

Value

$13.88

PnL

-$2.41

Record

48%

340-370 (710)

Research grade

NeutralUnder at 50%

No measured edge either way. The plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −4.8 % a trade after costs (n 10,051, 95 % CI −6.5 to −3.1 %).

Spread or totalSpreads and totals: −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 30–50¢0.30–0.50 lost −6.5 % a trade pooled (n 2,793), a little worse than the plain consensus.

Smart Money Signal

Under

4 of 8 top traders (50%)Underdog side (market favors Over 51%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Under wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance51.7%

49.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$93.24

Max Loss

-$100.00

193.2

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.