Bengals vs. Ravens: O/U 40.5

1 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold Over (20%) · Over at 70¢ · $319 held · ends Oct 25

Over70¢Under30¢Ends Sun, Oct 25, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Over

Consensus Traders

Over 20%

Total Value

$318.87

Combined PnL

$19.41

Research grade

NeutralOver at 70%

No measured edge either way. The plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −4.8 % a trade after costs (n 10,051, 95 % CI −6.5 to −3.1 %).

Spread or totalSpreads and totals: −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)0.70–0.90 was about break-even after costs, +0.4 % a trade (n 4,327); 0.60–0.95 with 70 %+ and $10k+ +2.9 % (n 955). The consensus beats its price by 2–3 points here, about what the costs take.

Backtest of Oct 22 2026: one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees. The grade never goes above “Research candidate”: no rule passed the multiple-testing check. It is not a forecast and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Over

1 of 5 top traders (20%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Over70%

Under31%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Over1 trader

Total Value$141.5

Total Shares202

Combined PnL+$2.02

Under4 traders

Total Value$177.37

Total Shares591

Combined PnL+$17.39

Over — 20%Under — 80%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
0X 0x5b624e3E0426F7AA2Ca57F7451fbcEa4b125D87f-1769796221989	Overavg 69¢	$139.48	$141.5	+$2.02	69% 4251-1917 (6168)
BO BoomLaLaCTR<$100	Underavg 28¢	$70	$75	+$5	55% 9063-7460 (16523)
LE LeLynxMalynxCTR<$100	Underavg 26.4¢	$65.8	$74.7	+$8.9	54% 13805-11589 (25394)
SU SunlineTickerCTR<$100	Underavg 26¢	$22.68	$26.17	+$3.49	68% 3514-1686 (5200)
FO Forecastication2CTR<$100	Underavg 30¢	$1.5	$1.5	+$0	61% 4492-2864 (7356)

0x5b624e3E0426F7AA2Ca57F7451fbcEa4b125D87f-1769796221989

Over

Invested

$139.48

Value

$141.5

PnL

+$2.02

Record

69%

4251-1917 (6168)

BoomLaLaCTR<$100

Under

Invested

$70

Value

$75

PnL

+$5

Record

55%

9063-7460 (16523)

LeLynxMalynxCTR<$100

Under

Invested

$65.8

Value

$74.7

PnL

+$8.9

Record

54%

13805-11589 (25394)

SunlineTickerCTR<$100

Under

Invested

$22.68

Value

$26.17

PnL

+$3.49

Record

68%

3514-1686 (5200)

Forecastication2CTR<$100

Under

Invested

$1.5

Value

$1.5

PnL

+$0

Record

61%

4492-2864 (7356)

Research grade

NeutralOver at 70%

No measured edge either way. The plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −4.8 % a trade after costs (n 10,051, 95 % CI −6.5 to −3.1 %).

Spread or totalSpreads and totals: −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)0.70–0.90 was about break-even after costs, +0.4 % a trade (n 4,327); 0.60–0.95 with 70 %+ and $10k+ +2.9 % (n 955). The consensus beats its price by 2–3 points here, about what the costs take.

Smart Money Signal

Over

1 of 5 top traders (20%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Over wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance71.5%

69.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.0¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$39.78

Max Loss

-$100.00

139.8

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.