Spread: Ravens (-5.5)

7 of 11 top Polymarket traders hold Bengals (64%) · Bengals at 91¢ · $11K held · ended Oct 25

Ravens10¢Bengals90¢Ended Sun, Oct 25, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Bengals

Consensus Traders

Bengals 64%

Total Value

$11.3K

Combined PnL

$-1.4K

Smart Money Entry

59¢ → 90.5¢

+53% since entry · 7 traders

Research grade

NeutralBengals at 91%

No measured edge either way. The plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −4.8 % a trade after costs (n 10,051, 95 % CI −6.5 to −3.1 %).

Spread or totalSpreads and totals: −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Favourite (60–95¢)0.70–0.90 was about break-even after costs, +0.4 % a trade (n 4,327); 0.60–0.95 with 70 %+ and $10k+ +2.9 % (n 955). The consensus beats its price by 2–3 points here, about what the costs take.

Backtest of Oct 22 2026: one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees. The grade never goes above “Research candidate”: no rule passed the multiple-testing check. It is not a forecast and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Bengals

7 of 11 top traders (64%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Ravens10%

Bengals91%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Bengals7 traders

Total Value$9.8K

Total Shares16,790

Combined PnL$-1.4K

Ravens4 traders

Total Value$1.5K

Total Shares2,606

Combined PnL+$16.18

Bengals — 64%Ravens — 36%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
FO forecastication4	Bengalsavg 73¢	$3.7K	$3.6K	-$179.39	48% 930-995 (1925)
RN1	Bengalsavg 38.3¢	$2.8K	$2.7K	-$60.57	55% 43817-36057 (79874)
CH chiefphi	Bengalsavg 89.9¢	$3.3K	$2.3K	$-1.0K	54% 62-52 (114)
SA SadSquid54333CTR	Ravensavg 61.2¢	$1.2K	$1.2K	+$24.38	63% 127-76 (203)
AN Anon455	Bengalsavg 74¢	$740	$695	-$45	56% 2044-1603 (3647)
JU justaluckydude	Bengalsavg 53.5¢	$547.92	$476.16	-$71.76	52% 6814-6216 (13030)
PR primmCTR	Ravensavg 39¢	$195	$187.5	-$7.5	46% 987-1174 (2161)
TA takeormakeCTR<$100	Ravensavg 57¢	$97.76	$98.61	+$0.86	55% 3020-2458 (5478)
UP UpTheBlues<$100	Bengalsavg 43¢	$27.09	$26.78	-$0.32	67% 31285-15084 (46369)
SE seeeeeebCTR<$100	Ravensavg 67¢	$16.08	$14.52	-$1.56	48% 340-370 (710)
HO HomeRunHazard<$100	Bengalsavg 38¢	$4.25	$7.77	+$3.52	55% 12164-10045 (22209)

forecastication4

Bengals

Invested

$3,741.52

Value

$3.6K

PnL

-$179.39

Record

48%

930-995 (1925)

RN1

Bengals

Invested

$2,786.45

Value

$2.7K

PnL

-$60.57

Record

55%

43817-36057 (79874)

chiefphi

Bengals

Invested

$3,306.25

Value

$2.3K

PnL

$-1.0K

Record

54%

62-52 (114)

SadSquid54333CTR

Ravens

Invested

$1,169.95

Value

$1.2K

PnL

+$24.38

Record

63%

127-76 (203)

Anon455

Bengals

Invested

$740

Value

$695

PnL

-$45

Record

56%

2044-1603 (3647)

justaluckydude

Bengals

Invested

$547.92

Value

$476.16

PnL

-$71.76

Record

52%

6814-6216 (13030)

primmCTR

Ravens

Invested

$195

Value

$187.5

PnL

-$7.5

Record

46%

987-1174 (2161)

takeormakeCTR<$100

Ravens

Invested

$97.76

Value

$98.61

PnL

+$0.86

Record

55%

3020-2458 (5478)

UpTheBlues<$100

Bengals

Invested

$27.09

Value

$26.78

PnL

-$0.32

Record

67%

31285-15084 (46369)

seeeeeebCTR<$100

Ravens

Invested

$16.08

Value

$14.52

PnL

-$1.56

Record

48%

340-370 (710)

HomeRunHazard<$100

Bengals

Invested

$4.25

Value

$7.77

PnL

+$3.52

Record

55%

12164-10045 (22209)

Research grade

NeutralBengals at 91%

No measured edge either way. The plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −4.8 % a trade after costs (n 10,051, 95 % CI −6.5 to −3.1 %).

Spread or totalSpreads and totals: −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Favourite (60–95¢)0.70–0.90 was about break-even after costs, +0.4 % a trade (n 4,327); 0.60–0.95 with 70 %+ and $10k+ +2.9 % (n 955). The consensus beats its price by 2–3 points here, about what the costs take.

Smart Money Signal

Bengals

7 of 11 top traders (64%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Bengals wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance91.9%

90.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.4¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$8.83

Max Loss

-$100.00

108.8

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.