Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Bengals, while the market favors Ravens (66%). 3 of 4 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.

Spread: Bengals (-6.5)

3 of 4 top Polymarket traders hold Bengals (75%) · Bengals at 34¢ · $1K held · ended Oct 25

Bengals34¢Ravens66¢Ended Sun, Oct 25, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Bengals

Consensus Traders

Bengals 75%

Total Value

$1.3K

Combined PnL

$395.78

Smart Money Entry

22.5¢ → 34¢

+51% since entry · 3 traders

Research grade

NeutralBengals at 34%

No measured edge either way. The plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −4.8 % a trade after costs (n 10,051, 95 % CI −6.5 to −3.1 %).

Spread or totalSpreads and totals: −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Fewer than 5 holdersEvery backtest needed 5+ holders; with fewer nothing was measured.
Side priced 30–50¢0.30–0.50 lost −6.5 % a trade pooled (n 2,793), a little worse than the plain consensus.

Backtest of Oct 22 2026: one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees. The grade never goes above “Research candidate”: no rule passed the multiple-testing check. It is not a forecast and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Bengals

3 of 4 top traders (75%)Underdog side (market favors Ravens 66%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Bengals34%

Ravens66%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Bengals3 traders

Total Value$1.2K

Total Shares3,427

Combined PnL+$393.95

Ravens1 trader

Total Value$120.78

Total Shares183

Combined PnL+$1.83

Bengals — 75%Ravens — 25%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
NE neymar1CTR	Bengalsavg 19.8¢	$538.25	$924.86	+$386.61	33% 302-622 (924)
FO Forecastication2CTR	Bengalsavg 32.1¢	$123.56	$130.9	+$7.34	61% 4558-2887 (7445)
SU SunlineTicker	Ravensavg 65¢	$118.95	$120.78	+$1.83	68% 3522-1694 (5216)
GO goldmynameCTR	Bengalsavg 34¢	$109.48	$109.48	+$0	67% 85-42 (127)

neymar1CTR

Bengals

Invested

$538.25

Value

$924.86

PnL

+$386.61

Record

33%

302-622 (924)

Forecastication2CTR

Bengals

Invested

$123.56

Value

$130.9

PnL

+$7.34

Record

61%

4558-2887 (7445)

SunlineTicker

Ravens

Invested

$118.95

Value

$120.78

PnL

+$1.83

Record

68%

3522-1694 (5216)

goldmynameCTR

Bengals

Invested

$109.48

Value

$109.48

PnL

+$0

Record

67%

85-42 (127)

Research grade

NeutralBengals at 34%

No measured edge either way. The plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −4.8 % a trade after costs (n 10,051, 95 % CI −6.5 to −3.1 %).

Spread or totalSpreads and totals: −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Fewer than 5 holdersEvery backtest needed 5+ holders; with fewer nothing was measured.
Side priced 30–50¢0.30–0.50 lost −6.5 % a trade pooled (n 2,793), a little worse than the plain consensus.

Smart Money Signal

Bengals

3 of 4 top traders (75%)Underdog side (market favors Ravens 66%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Bengals wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance36.1%

34.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.1¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$176.72

Max Loss

-$100.00

276.7

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.