Spread: Bengals (-5.5)
5 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold Ravens (100%) · Ravens at 88¢ · $2K held · ended Oct 25
⚖️
Neutral
Ravens
5
Ravens 100%
$1.8K
$266.03
64.3¢ → 88¢
+37% since entry · 5 traders
Research grade
NeutralRavens at 88%
No measured edge either way. The plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −4.8 % a trade after costs (n 10,051, 95 % CI −6.5 to −3.1 %).
- Spread or totalSpreads and totals: −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
- Favourite (60–95¢)0.70–0.90 was about break-even after costs, +0.4 % a trade (n 4,327); 0.60–0.95 with 70 %+ and $10k+ +2.9 % (n 955). The consensus beats its price by 2–3 points here, about what the costs take.
Backtest of Oct 22 2026: one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees. The grade never goes above “Research candidate”: no rule passed the multiple-testing check. It is not a forecast and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
5 of 5 top traders (100%)1 small position dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
5 traders
Top 2 hold 89%
Freshness
Mature
22h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
100% of non-arb traders are on Ravens. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 89% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
FO forecastication4 | Ravensavg 66¢ | $711.48 | $808.5 | +$97.02 | 48% 930-995 (1925) |
AN Anon455 | Ravensavg 61¢ | $610 | $710 | +$155 | 56% 2044-1603 (3647) |
 RollAwayTheDew | Ravensavg 65¢ | $135 | $147.5 | +$12.5 | 54% 253-212 (465) |
 RN1 | Ravensavg 73.1¢ | $132.66 | $128.88 | -$3.79 | 55% 43817-36057 (79874) |
LE LeLynxMalynx<$100 | Ravensavg 61¢ | $32.33 | $37.63 | +$5.3 | 54% 13884-11640 (25524) |
Invested
$711.48
Value
$808.5
PnL
+$97.02
Record
48%
930-995 (1925)
Invested
$610
Value
$710
PnL
+$155
Record
56%
2044-1603 (3647)
RollAwayTheDewInvested
$135
Value
$147.5
PnL
+$12.5
Record
54%
253-212 (465)
RN1Invested
$132.66
Value
$128.88
PnL
-$3.79
Record
55%
43817-36057 (79874)
Invested
$32.33
Value
$37.63
PnL
+$5.3
Record
54%
13884-11640 (25524)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
88.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.5¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.