Spread: Bengals (-3.5)

6 of 7 top Polymarket traders hold Ravens (86%) · Ravens at 56¢ · $24K held · ends Oct 25

Bengals45¢Ravens55¢Ends Sun, Oct 25, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Ravens

Consensus Traders

Ravens 86%

Total Value

$24.3K

Combined PnL

$2.4K

Smart Money Entry

57.2¢ → 55.5¢

-3% since entry · 6 traders

Research grade

NeutralRavens at 56%

No measured edge either way. The plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −4.8 % a trade after costs (n 10,051, 95 % CI −6.5 to −3.1 %).

Spread or totalSpreads and totals: −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Side priced 50–60¢0.50–0.70 lost −3.2 % a trade pooled (n 3,834).

Backtest of Oct 22 2026: one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees. The grade never goes above “Research candidate”: no rule passed the multiple-testing check. It is not a forecast and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Ravens

6 of 7 top traders (86%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%1 small position dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Bengals45%

Ravens56%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Ravens6 traders

Total Value$23.1K

Total Shares35,625

Combined PnL+$2.6K

Bengals1 trader

Total Value$1.3K

Total Shares3,576

Combined PnL-$160.93

Ravens — 86%Bengals — 14%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
HO HomeRunHazard	Ravensavg 57¢	$7.8K	$8.8K	+$1.0K	55% 11733-9634 (21367)
VeryLucky888	Ravensavg 60¢	$6.0K	$6.4K	+$447.81	58% 31334-22653 (53987)
0X 0xfB07F48542d2b655e9D0Bf1cC92a8a6Feee8e2cC-1782415802542	Ravensavg 55¢	$5.0K	$5.9K	+$863.64	47% 1952-2174 (4126)
StudyPrediction	Ravensavg 56¢	$1.1K	$1.3K	+$170	51% 3538-3434 (6972)
IC ic4creamCTR	Bengalsavg 40¢	$1.4K	$1.3K	-$160.93	63% 2237-1290 (3527)
0X 0x5b624e3E0426F7AA2Ca57F7451fbcEa4b125D87f-1769796221989	Ravensavg 55¢	$550	$645	+$95	69% 4202-1899 (6101)
LE LeLynxMalynx<$100	Ravensavg 56¢	$21.84	$25.16	+$3.32	54% 13658-11474 (25132)

HomeRunHazard

Ravens

Invested

$7,790.4

Value

$8.8K

PnL

+$1.0K

Record

55%

11733-9634 (21367)

VeryLucky888

Ravens

Invested

$6,000

Value

$6.4K

PnL

+$447.81

Record

58%

31334-22653 (53987)

0xfB07F48542d2b655e9D0Bf1cC92a8a6Feee8e2cC-1782415802542

Ravens

Invested

$5,000.01

Value

$5.9K

PnL

+$863.64

Record

47%

1952-2174 (4126)

StudyPrediction

Ravens

Invested

$1,119.99

Value

$1.3K

PnL

+$170

Record

51%

3538-3434 (6972)

ic4creamCTR

Bengals

Invested

$1,430.52

Value

$1.3K

PnL

-$160.93

Record

63%

2237-1290 (3527)

0x5b624e3E0426F7AA2Ca57F7451fbcEa4b125D87f-1769796221989

Ravens

Invested

$550

Value

$645

PnL

+$95

Record

69%

4202-1899 (6101)

LeLynxMalynx<$100

Ravens

Invested

$21.84

Value

$25.16

PnL

+$3.32

Record

54%

13658-11474 (25132)

Research grade

NeutralRavens at 56%

No measured edge either way. The plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −4.8 % a trade after costs (n 10,051, 95 % CI −6.5 to −3.1 %).

Spread or totalSpreads and totals: −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Side priced 50–60¢0.50–0.70 lost −3.2 % a trade pooled (n 3,834).

Smart Money Signal

Ravens

6 of 7 top traders (86%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%1 small position dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Ravens wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance57.7%

55.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$73.22

Max Loss

-$100.00

173.2

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.