Smart money holds the underdog side
Most tracked traders hold Packers, while the market favors Panthers (54%). 2 of 2 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.
Spread: Packers (-4.5)
2 of 2 top Polymarket traders hold Packers (100%) · Packers at 46¢ · $6K held · ends Oct 30
⚖️
Neutral
Packers
2
Packers 100%
$5.7K
-$62.92
47¢ → 46.5¢
-1% since entry · 2 traders
Research grade
NeutralPackers at 46%
No measured edge either way. The plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −4.8 % a trade after costs (n 10,051, 95 % CI −6.5 to −3.1 %).
- Spread or totalSpreads and totals: −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
- Fewer than 5 holdersEvery backtest needed 5+ holders; with fewer nothing was measured.
- Side priced 30–50¢0.30–0.50 lost −6.5 % a trade pooled (n 2,793), a little worse than the plain consensus.
Backtest of Oct 22 2026: one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees. The grade never goes above “Research candidate”: no rule passed the multiple-testing check. It is not a forecast and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
2 of 2 top traders (100%)Underdog side (market favors Panthers 54%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
HO HomeRunHazardCTR | Packersavg 47¢ | $4.5K | $4.5K | -$47.94 | 54% 16560-13892 (30452) |
 VeryLucky888CTR | Packersavg 47¢ | $1.3K | $1.2K | -$14.99 | 58% 39913-28822 (68735) |
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
46.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.