Spread: Bills (-3.5)
2 of 4 top Polymarket traders hold Ravens (50%) · Ravens at 53¢ · $10K held · ends Nov 1
⚖️
Neutral
Ravens
4
Ravens 50%
$10.3K
-$49.64
53¢ → 47¢
-11% since entry · 2 traders
Research grade
NeutralRavens at 47%
No measured edge either way. The plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −4.8 % a trade after costs (n 10,051, 95 % CI −6.5 to −3.1 %).
- Spread or totalSpreads and totals: −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
- Fewer than 5 holdersEvery backtest needed 5+ holders; with fewer nothing was measured.
- Side priced 30–50¢0.30–0.50 lost −6.5 % a trade pooled (n 2,793), a little worse than the plain consensus.
Backtest of Oct 22 2026: one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees. The grade never goes above “Research candidate”: no rule passed the multiple-testing check. It is not a forecast and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
2 of 4 top traders (50%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
MD mde4life1986 | Ravensavg 53¢ | $7.6K | $7.6K | +$0.06 | 50% 150-153 (303) |
 beet420 | Billsavg 47¢ | $2.4K | $2.4K | -$52.07 | 53% 400-359 (759) |
 RollAwayTheDew | Billsavg 46¢ | $164.83 | $164.83 | +$0 | 52% 270-247 (517) |
JO jole24 | Ravensavg 53¢ | $125.45 | $127.81 | +$2.37 | 45% 1007-1253 (2260) |
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
47.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.