Next Google Gemini Flash-Lite Model (3.6+) released by November 30, 2026?

2 of 4 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (50%) · Yes at 53¢ · $438 held · ends Dec 1

Yes53¢No47¢Ends Tue, Dec 1, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Yes

Consensus Traders

Yes 50%

Total Value

$438.27

Combined PnL

-$14.5

Smart Money Entry

63.4¢ → 53¢

-16% since entry · 2 traders

Research grade

NeutralYes at 53%

No measured edge either way. The plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −4.8 % a trade after costs (n 10,051, 95 % CI −6.5 to −3.1 %).

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Fewer than 5 holdersEvery backtest needed 5+ holders; with fewer nothing was measured.
Side priced 50–60¢0.50–0.70 lost −3.2 % a trade pooled (n 3,834).

Backtest of Oct 22 2026: one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees. The grade never goes above “Research candidate”: no rule passed the multiple-testing check. It is not a forecast and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

2 of 4 top traders (50%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Yes53%

No47%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Yes2 traders

Total Value$387.05

Total Shares730

Combined PnL-$56.6

No2 traders

Total Value$51.23

Total Shares190

Combined PnL+$42.1

Yes — 50%No — 50%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
KimchiCapital	Yesavg 57.6¢	$321.64	$242.14	-$1.51	73% 395-146 (541)
XC xcaiox	Yesavg 73.2¢	$200	$144.9	-$55.09	—
0X 0x2b670A311561DcAF741D8155451774D3Fa7fb814-1778467735876CTR<$100	Noavg 20.8¢	$22.85	$29.63	+$39.7	46% 107-128 (235)
DE dedidancCTR<$100	Noavg 54¢	$19.2	$21.6	+$2.4	56% 83-65 (148)

KimchiCapital

Yes

Invested

$321.64

Value

$242.14

PnL

-$1.51

Record

73%

395-146 (541)

xcaiox

Yes

Invested

$200

Value

$144.9

PnL

-$55.09

Record

—

0x2b670A311561DcAF741D8155451774D3Fa7fb814-1778467735876CTR<$100

Invested

$22.85

Value

$29.63

PnL

+$39.7

Record

46%

107-128 (235)

dedidancCTR<$100

Invested

$19.2

Value

$21.6

PnL

+$2.4

Record

56%

83-65 (148)

Research grade

NeutralYes at 53%

No measured edge either way. The plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −4.8 % a trade after costs (n 10,051, 95 % CI −6.5 to −3.1 %).

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Fewer than 5 holdersEvery backtest needed 5+ holders; with fewer nothing was measured.
Side priced 50–60¢0.50–0.70 lost −3.2 % a trade pooled (n 3,834).

Smart Money Signal

Yes

2 of 4 top traders (50%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Yes wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance55.0%

53.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.0¢ fee (Tech 4%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$81.84

Max Loss

-$100.00

181.8

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.