Next Gemini Flash Model (3.9+) released by November 30, 2026?

2 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (40%) · Yes at 72¢ · $3K held · ends Nov 30

Yes72¢No28¢Ends Mon, Nov 30, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Yes

Consensus Traders

Yes 40%

Total Value

$3.1K

Combined PnL

$34.04

Smart Money Entry

73.7¢ → 72¢

-2% since entry · 2 traders

Research grade

NeutralYes at 72%

No measured edge either way. The plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −4.8 % a trade after costs (n 10,051, 95 % CI −6.5 to −3.1 %).

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)0.70–0.90 was about break-even after costs, +0.4 % a trade (n 4,327); 0.60–0.95 with 70 %+ and $10k+ +2.9 % (n 955). The consensus beats its price by 2–3 points here, about what the costs take.

Backtest of Oct 22 2026: one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees. The grade never goes above “Research candidate”: no rule passed the multiple-testing check. It is not a forecast and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

2 of 5 top traders (40%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%1 small position dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Yes72%

No28%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Yes2 traders

Total Value$2.2K

Total Shares2,853

Combined PnL-$62.77

No3 traders

Total Value$941.32

Total Shares3,246

Combined PnL+$96.81

Yes — 40%No — 60%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Fading

-20 pts consensus

Breadth

2 traders

Top 2 hold 100%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

40% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (1 on No) and the top 1000 (4 on Yes) disagree here.

sharpYes 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrNo 67% · 3

Diverging

Hand-pickedNo 100% · 1

Diverging

Top 1000Yes 50% · 4

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
Contentious-Dinnerdate	Yesavg 72.4¢	$1.9K	$2.0K	-$25.32	50% 357-355 (712)
0X 0x2b670A311561DcAF741D8155451774D3Fa7fb814-1778467735876CTR	Noavg 27.1¢	$624.22	$668.2	+$32.47	46% 103-122 (225)
AJ AJSVCTR	Noavg 24¢	$214.01	$212.86	+$77.38	36% 12963-22716 (35679)
TH thoodr	Yesavg 94¢	$156.48	$126.52	-$37.46	96% 534-23 (557)
DE dedidancCTR<$100	Noavg 34.8¢	$72.24	$60.26	-$13.03	57% 81-62 (143)

Contentious-Dinnerdate

Yes

Invested

$1,946.15

Value

$2.0K

PnL

-$25.32

Record

50%

357-355 (712)

0x2b670A311561DcAF741D8155451774D3Fa7fb814-1778467735876CTR

Invested

$624.22

Value

$668.2

PnL

+$32.47

Record

46%

103-122 (225)

AJSVCTR

Invested

$214.01

Value

$212.86

PnL

+$77.38

Record

36%

12963-22716 (35679)

thoodr

Yes

Invested

$156.48

Value

$126.52

PnL

-$37.46

Record

96%

534-23 (557)

dedidancCTR<$100

Invested

$72.24

Value

$60.26

PnL

-$13.03

Record

57%

81-62 (143)

Research grade

NeutralYes at 72%

No measured edge either way. The plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −4.8 % a trade after costs (n 10,051, 95 % CI −6.5 to −3.1 %).

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)0.70–0.90 was about break-even after costs, +0.4 % a trade (n 4,327); 0.60–0.95 with 70 %+ and $10k+ +2.9 % (n 955). The consensus beats its price by 2–3 points here, about what the costs take.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

2 of 5 top traders (40%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%1 small position dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Fading

-20 pts consensus

Breadth

2 traders

Top 2 hold 100%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

40% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (1 on No) and the top 1000 (4 on Yes) disagree here.

sharpYes 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrNo 67% · 3

Diverging

Hand-pickedNo 100% · 1

Diverging

Top 1000Yes 50% · 4

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Yes wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance73.8%

72.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.8¢ fee (Tech 4%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$35.52

Max Loss

-$100.00

135.5

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.