Next Fable Model (5.2+) released by October 28, 2026?
3 of 4 top Polymarket traders hold No (75%) · No at 82¢ · $725 held · ends Oct 29
⚖️
Neutral
No
4
No 75%
1 arb excluded
$725.11
-$3.56
74¢ → 81.5¢
+10% since entry · 3 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 82%
No measured edge either way. The plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −4.8 % a trade after costs (n 10,051, 95 % CI −6.5 to −3.1 %).
- Favourite (60–95¢)0.70–0.90 was about break-even after costs, +0.4 % a trade (n 4,327); 0.60–0.95 with 70 %+ and $10k+ +2.9 % (n 955). The consensus beats its price by 2–3 points here, about what the costs take.
Backtest of Oct 22 2026: one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees. The grade never goes above “Research candidate”: no rule passed the multiple-testing check. It is not a forecast and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
3 of 4 top traders (75%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed1 holds an outcome priced under 50%1 small position dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 balthazar | Noavg 69.1¢ | $216.07 | $225.02 | +$8.95 | 63% 16296-9616 (25912) |
 Roflan-ludoman | Noavg 80.6¢ | $255 | $208.59 | -$46.41 | 62% 632-391 (1023) |
AJ AJSVCTR | Yesavg 30.4¢ | $157.35 | $191.43 | +$34.08 | 36% 13604-23855 (37459) |
LI lissartterARB<$100 | Yesavg 47¢ | $363.09 | $59.67 | -$10.3 | 42% 4998-6886 (11884) |
| └ No leg | Noavg 64.4¢ | $34.46 | $38.54 | -$0.82 | |
| └ Yes leg | Yesavg 47¢ | $35.47 | $21.14 | -$9.48 | |
 Istaroth<$100 | Noavg 63.8¢ | $41.6 | $40.4 | -$0.18 | 49% 269-276 (545) |
balthazarInvested
$216.07
Value
$225.02
PnL
+$8.95
Record
63%
16296-9616 (25912)
Roflan-ludomanInvested
$255
Value
$208.59
PnL
-$46.41
Record
62%
632-391 (1023)
Invested
$157.35
Value
$191.43
PnL
+$34.08
Record
36%
13604-23855 (37459)
Invested
$363.09
Value
$59.67
PnL
-$10.3
Record
42%
4998-6886 (11884)
Both legs:
Istaroth<$100Invested
$41.6
Value
$40.4
PnL
-$0.18
Record
49%
269-276 (545)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
81.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.7¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.