Next Fable Model (5.2+) released by October 26, 2026?
4 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold No (80%) · No at 99¢ · $1K held · ends Oct 27
⚖️
Neutral
No
5
No 80%
$1.1K
$271.43
72.5¢ → 99¢
+37% since entry · 4 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 99%
No measured edge either way. The plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −4.8 % a trade after costs (n 10,051, 95 % CI −6.5 to −3.1 %).
- Side priced over 95¢0.90–0.99 was −0.2 % a trade (n 4,210); above 95¢ little is left to win and the backtests' bands stop at 0.95.
Backtest of Oct 22 2026: one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees. The grade never goes above “Research candidate”: no rule passed the multiple-testing check. It is not a forecast and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
4 of 5 top traders (80%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
4 traders
Top 2 hold 85%
Freshness
Late
126h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
80% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 85% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 The-Joker | Noavg 81.3¢ | $564.99 | $691.81 | +$126.82 | 68% 1470-684 (2154) |
 Contentious-Dinnerdate | Noavg 52¢ | $125.84 | $239.58 | +$104.06 | 49% 381-390 (771) |
 Roflan-ludoman<$100 | Noavg 44¢ | $44 | $99 | +$55.55 | 62% 634-392 (1026) |
 eCash<$100 | Noavg 99¢ | $63.52 | $63.52 | +$0 | 68% 319-150 (469) |
CB Cb94C437EA5e6f088c6c0C143c592ab8EFBedCTR<$100 | Yesavg 2¢ | $20 | $5 | -$15 | 53% 6100-5351 (11451) |
The-JokerInvested
$564.99
Value
$691.81
PnL
+$126.82
Record
68%
1470-684 (2154)
Contentious-DinnerdateInvested
$125.84
Value
$239.58
PnL
+$104.06
Record
49%
381-390 (771)
Roflan-ludoman<$100Invested
$44
Value
$99
PnL
+$55.55
Record
62%
634-392 (1026)
eCash<$100Invested
$63.52
Value
$63.52
PnL
+$0
Record
68%
319-150 (469)
Invested
$20
Value
$5
PnL
-$15
Record
53%
6100-5351 (11451)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
99.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.