Smart money holds the underdog side
Most tracked traders hold No, while the market favors Yes (56%). 3 of 5 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.
Next Astra Model (6.1+) released by November 30, 2026?
3 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold No (60%) · No at 45¢ · $2K held · ends Nov 30
⚖️
Neutral
No
5
No 60%
1 arb excluded
$1.5K
$121.9
36.8¢ → 44.5¢
+21% since entry · 3 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 45%
No measured edge either way. The plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −4.8 % a trade after costs (n 10,051, 95 % CI −6.5 to −3.1 %).
- Side priced 30–50¢0.30–0.50 lost −6.5 % a trade pooled (n 2,793), a little worse than the plain consensus.
Backtest of Oct 22 2026: one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees. The grade never goes above “Research candidate”: no rule passed the multiple-testing check. It is not a forecast and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
3 of 5 top traders (60%)Underdog side (market favors Yes 56%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed3 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Fading
-35 pts consensus
Breadth
2 traders
Top 2 hold 100%
Freshness
Mature
36h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
40% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 IstarothARB<$100 | Yesavg 65.8¢ | $593.21 | $568.01 | -$9.96 | 35% 273-515 (788) |
| └ Yes leg | Yesavg 65.8¢ | $373.73 | $309.56 | -$65.44 | |
| └ No leg | Noavg 35.4¢ | $201.07 | $258.45 | +$55.48 | |
 Optimus-CTR | Noavg 31.5¢ | $318 | $484.63 | +$111.1 | 61% 1195-756 (1951) |
CB Cb94C437EA5e6f088c6c0C143c592ab8EFBedCTR | Noavg 46.3¢ | $438.71 | $238.38 | -$5.66 | 53% 6207-5451 (11658) |
 Contentious-Dinnerdate | Yesavg 54¢ | $125.6 | $134.66 | +$9.06 | 50% 389-393 (782) |
0X 0x3814198398E2d02c0e8fBa652345995cF84417bC-1782140092998<$100 | Yesavg 51¢ | $54.06 | $55.12 | +$1.06 | 55% 253-205 (458) |
LI lissartterCTR<$100 | Noavg 45¢ | $63.41 | $34.72 | +$6.34 | 42% 5168-7099 (12267) |
IstarothARB<$100Invested
$593.21
Value
$568.01
PnL
-$9.96
Record
35%
273-515 (788)
Both legs:
Optimus-CTRInvested
$318
Value
$484.63
PnL
+$111.1
Record
61%
1195-756 (1951)
Invested
$438.71
Value
$238.38
PnL
-$5.66
Record
53%
6207-5451 (11658)
Contentious-DinnerdateInvested
$125.6
Value
$134.66
PnL
+$9.06
Record
50%
389-393 (782)
Invested
$54.06
Value
$55.12
PnL
+$1.06
Record
55%
253-205 (458)
Invested
$63.41
Value
$34.72
PnL
+$6.34
Record
42%
5168-7099 (12267)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
44.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.