Smart money holds the underdog side
Most tracked traders hold Over, while the market favors Under (97%). 4 of 5 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.
Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.
Wizards vs. Hornets: O/U 233.5
4 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold Over (80%) · Over at 2.9¢ · $326 held · ended Oct 26
⚠️
Avoid
Over
5
Over 80%
$326.04
-$95.12
43.4¢ → 2.9¢
-93% since entry · 4 traders
Research grade
AvoidOver at 3%
Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the trading costs in the backtests.
- Consensus side under 30¢Longshots (0.05–0.30) lost −29.5 % a trade pooled (n 1,625; −22 % in spring, −35 % in October): the strongest effect in the backtests.
- BasketballBasketball lost in both windows: −12.0 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −22 to −2), −9.2 % in October.
- Spread or totalSpreads and totals: −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Backtest of Oct 22 2026: one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees. The grade never goes above “Research candidate”: no rule passed the multiple-testing check. It is not a forecast and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
4 of 5 top traders (80%)Underdog side (market favors Under 97%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
4 traders
Top 2 hold 81%
Freshness
Mature
29h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
80% of non-arb traders are on Over. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 81% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 VeryLucky888CTR | Overavg 45¢ | $225 | $187.72 | -$46.87 | 58% 39668-28654 (68322) |
0X 0x5b624e3E0426F7AA2Ca57F7451fbcEa4b125D87f-1769796221989CTR | Overavg 42¢ | $109.02 | $98.64 | -$12.98 | 53% 5383-4728 (10111) |
 HRTrading<$100 | Underavg 58¢ | $15.35 | $20.46 | +$5.12 | 54% 2262-1899 (4161) |
LE LeLynxMalynxCTR<$100 | Overavg 46¢ | $12.91 | $16.25 | +$3.34 | 57% 27008-20057 (47065) |
FO Forecastication2CTR<$100 | Overavg 39.2¢ | $46.7 | $2.98 | -$43.72 | 50% 6607-6589 (13196) |
VeryLucky888CTRInvested
$225
Value
$187.72
PnL
-$46.87
Record
58%
39668-28654 (68322)
Invested
$109.02
Value
$98.64
PnL
-$12.98
Record
53%
5383-4728 (10111)
HRTrading<$100Invested
$15.35
Value
$20.46
PnL
+$5.12
Record
54%
2262-1899 (4161)
Invested
$12.91
Value
$16.25
PnL
+$3.34
Record
57%
27008-20057 (47065)
Invested
$46.7
Value
$2.98
PnL
-$43.72
Record
50%
6607-6589 (13196)
Chat
Sign in with your wallet to post.
EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
2.9¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.