Wizards vs. Hornets: O/U 232.5

2 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold Under (40%) · Under at 56¢ · $851 held · ends Oct 26

Over44¢Under56¢Ends Mon, Oct 26, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Under

Consensus Traders

Under 40%

Total Value

$850.53

Combined PnL

$15.86

Smart Money Entry

53¢ → 56¢

+6% since entry · 2 traders

Research grade

AvoidUnder at 56%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the trading costs in the backtests.

BasketballBasketball lost in both windows: −12.0 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −22 to −2), −9.2 % in October.
Spread or totalSpreads and totals: −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 50–60¢0.50–0.70 lost −3.2 % a trade pooled (n 3,834).

Backtest of Oct 22 2026: one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees. The grade never goes above “Research candidate”: no rule passed the multiple-testing check. It is not a forecast and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Under

2 of 5 top traders (40%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%1 small position dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Over44%

Under56%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Under2 traders

Total Value$460.36

Total Shares853

Combined PnL+$8.18

Over3 traders

Total Value$390.17

Total Shares834

Combined PnL+$7.68

Under — 40%Over — 60%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
HO HomeRunHazard	Underavg 53.1¢	$301.13	$317.86	+$16.73	55% 12164-10045 (22209)
GO goldmynameCTR	Overavg 45¢	$207	$199.61	-$2.24	67% 85-42 (127)
0X 0x5b624e3E0426F7AA2Ca57F7451fbcEa4b125D87f-1769796221989CTR	Overavg 47¢	$153.34	$163.12	+$9.79	57% 4484-3315 (7799)
RollAwayTheDew	Underavg 53¢	$151.05	$142.5	-$8.55	54% 253-212 (465)
LE LeLynxMalynxCTR<$100	Overavg 46.3¢	$27.3	$27.44	+$0.14	54% 13884-11640 (25524)

HomeRunHazard

Under

Invested

$301.13

Value

$317.86

PnL

+$16.73

Record

55%

12164-10045 (22209)

goldmynameCTR

Over

Invested

$207

Value

$199.61

PnL

-$2.24

Record

67%

85-42 (127)

0x5b624e3E0426F7AA2Ca57F7451fbcEa4b125D87f-1769796221989CTR

Over

Invested

$153.34

Value

$163.12

PnL

+$9.79

Record

57%

4484-3315 (7799)

RollAwayTheDew

Under

Invested

$151.05

Value

$142.5

PnL

-$8.55

Record

54%

253-212 (465)

LeLynxMalynxCTR<$100

Over

Invested

$27.3

Value

$27.44

PnL

+$0.14

Record

54%

13884-11640 (25524)

Research grade

AvoidUnder at 56%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the trading costs in the backtests.

BasketballBasketball lost in both windows: −12.0 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −22 to −2), −9.2 % in October.
Spread or totalSpreads and totals: −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 50–60¢0.50–0.70 lost −3.2 % a trade pooled (n 3,834).

Smart Money Signal

Under

2 of 5 top traders (40%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%1 small position dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Under wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance58.2%

56.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$71.75

Max Loss

-$100.00

171.7

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.