Wizards vs. Hornets: O/U 230.5
1 of 7 top Polymarket traders hold Under (14%) · Under at 55¢ · $2K held · ends Oct 26
⚠️
Avoid
Under
7
Under 14%
$1.7K
$58.31
Research grade
AvoidUnder at 55%
Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the trading costs in the backtests.
- BasketballBasketball lost in both windows: −12.0 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −22 to −2), −9.2 % in October.
- Spread or totalSpreads and totals: −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
- Side priced 50–60¢0.50–0.70 lost −3.2 % a trade pooled (n 3,834).
Backtest of Oct 22 2026: one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees. The grade never goes above “Research candidate”: no rule passed the multiple-testing check. It is not a forecast and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
1 of 7 top traders (14%)6 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
HO HomeRunHazard | Underavg 52.1¢ | $885.93 | $943.16 | +$57.23 | 55% 12853-10588 (23441) |
0X 0x5b624e3E0426F7AA2Ca57F7451fbcEa4b125D87f-1769796221989CTR | Overavg 47¢ | $470 | $490 | +$20 | 57% 4739-3553 (8292) |
 VeryLucky888CTR | Overavg 50.5¢ | $384.49 | $128.42 | -$17.97 | 58% 34591-25199 (59790) |
LE LeLynxMalynxCTR<$100 | Overavg 50.1¢ | $65.42 | $64.85 | -$0.57 | 56% 21078-16865 (37943) |
 0xheavy888CTR<$100 | Overavg 51.3¢ | $15.4 | $15.15 | -$0.25 | 55% 6546-5254 (11800) |
 HRTradingCTR<$100 | Overavg 45.7¢ | $7.68 | $7.48 | -$0.2 | 56% 1934-1543 (3477) |
RL RLWGCTR<$100 | Overavg 49¢ | $2.45 | $2.53 | +$0.07 | 51% 4547-4285 (8832) |
Invested
$885.93
Value
$943.16
PnL
+$57.23
Record
55%
12853-10588 (23441)
Invested
$470
Value
$490
PnL
+$20
Record
57%
4739-3553 (8292)
VeryLucky888CTRInvested
$384.49
Value
$128.42
PnL
-$17.97
Record
58%
34591-25199 (59790)
Invested
$65.42
Value
$64.85
PnL
-$0.57
Record
56%
21078-16865 (37943)
0xheavy888CTR<$100Invested
$15.4
Value
$15.15
PnL
-$0.25
Record
55%
6546-5254 (11800)
HRTradingCTR<$100Invested
$7.68
Value
$7.48
PnL
-$0.2
Record
56%
1934-1543 (3477)
Invested
$2.45
Value
$2.53
PnL
+$0.07
Record
51%
4547-4285 (8832)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
54.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.