Wizards vs. Hornets: O/U 229.5
3 of 6 top Polymarket traders hold Under (50%) · Under at 51¢ · $3K held · ends Oct 26
⚠️
Avoid
Under
6
Under 50%
$2.6K
$13.76
50.5¢ → 51¢
+1% since entry · 3 traders
Research grade
AvoidUnder at 51%
Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the trading costs in the backtests.
- BasketballBasketball lost in both windows: −12.0 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −22 to −2), −9.2 % in October.
- Spread or totalSpreads and totals: −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
- Side priced 50–60¢0.50–0.70 lost −3.2 % a trade pooled (n 3,834).
Backtest of Oct 22 2026: one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees. The grade never goes above “Research candidate”: no rule passed the multiple-testing check. It is not a forecast and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
3 of 6 top traders (50%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
HO HomeRunHazard | Underavg 50.3¢ | $1.6K | $1.6K | +$6.32 | 55% 14758-12309 (27067) |
HI hi774cCTR | Overavg 50¢ | $790.72 | $806.53 | +$15.81 | 52% 4539-4208 (8747) |
 VeryLucky888 | Underavg 51¢ | $127.5 | $122.5 | -$5 | 58% 37023-26943 (63966) |
 RollAwayTheDew<$100 | Underavg 52.6¢ | $66.27 | $61.75 | -$4.52 | 53% 265-239 (504) |
LE LeLynxMalynxCTR<$100 | Overavg 49.2¢ | $60.55 | $61.57 | +$1.02 | 57% 23972-18438 (42410) |
 0xheavy888CTR<$100 | Overavg 48¢ | $3.99 | $4.12 | +$0.12 | 56% 6646-5318 (11964) |
Invested
$1,571.38
Value
$1.6K
PnL
+$6.32
Record
55%
14758-12309 (27067)
Invested
$790.72
Value
$806.53
PnL
+$15.81
Record
52%
4539-4208 (8747)
VeryLucky888Invested
$127.5
Value
$122.5
PnL
-$5
Record
58%
37023-26943 (63966)
RollAwayTheDew<$100Invested
$66.27
Value
$61.75
PnL
-$4.52
Record
53%
265-239 (504)
Invested
$60.55
Value
$61.57
PnL
+$1.02
Record
57%
23972-18438 (42410)
0xheavy888CTR<$100Invested
$3.99
Value
$4.12
PnL
+$0.12
Record
56%
6646-5318 (11964)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
51.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.