Wizards vs. Hornets: O/U 227.5

1 of 10 top Polymarket traders hold Over (10%) · Over at 52¢ · $29K held · ends Oct 26

Over52¢Under48¢Ends Mon, Oct 26, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Over

Consensus Traders

Over 10%

Total Value

$29.2K

Combined PnL

$5.1

Research grade

AvoidOver at 52%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the trading costs in the backtests.

BasketballBasketball lost in both windows: −12.0 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −22 to −2), −9.2 % in October.
Spread or totalSpreads and totals: −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 50–60¢0.50–0.70 lost −3.2 % a trade pooled (n 3,834).

Backtest of Oct 22 2026: one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees. The grade never goes above “Research candidate”: no rule passed the multiple-testing check. It is not a forecast and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Over

1 of 10 top traders (10%)9 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Over52%

Under49%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Over1 trader

Total Value$16.2K

Total Shares30,650

Combined PnL+$6.5

Under9 traders

Total Value$13.0K

Total Shares27,487

Combined PnL-$1.4

Over — 10%Under — 90%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
FR fraagen	Overavg 53¢	$16.2K	$16.2K	+$6.5	49% 49-52 (101)
MO mooseborzoiiCTR	Underavg 47¢	$5.6K	$5.6K	+$0	50% 1083-1075 (2158)
0X 0xfB07F48542d2b655e9D0Bf1cC92a8a6Feee8e2cC-1782415802542CTR	Underavg 47¢	$2.8K	$2.8K	+$0	47% 2249-2495 (4744)
0X 0x9f15613ebf1f36d4bc679e1211d1fc567cf9bdb3CTR	Underavg 47¢	$1.6K	$1.6K	-$0	50% 2174-2185 (4359)
HO HomeRunHazardCTR	Underavg 47¢	$1.5K	$1.5K	-$2.11	54% 15300-12775 (28075)
HI hi774cCTR	Underavg 47¢	$1.5K	$1.5K	-$0	52% 4572-4237 (8809)
LE LeLynxMalynxCTR<$100	Underavg 45.9¢	$38.8	$39.5	+$0.62	57% 24239-18661 (42900)
FO Forecastication2CTR<$100	Underavg 47¢	$9.4	$9.4	-$0	63% 5793-3427 (9220)
BA BayupatiCTR<$100	Underavg 48¢	$8.82	$8.91	+$0.09	50% 174-171 (345)
0xheavy888CTR<$100	Underavg 47¢	$4.7	$4.7	-$0	56% 6682-5351 (12033)

fraagen

Over

Invested

$16,238.16

Value

$16.2K

PnL

+$6.5

Record

49%

49-52 (101)

mooseborzoiiCTR

Under

Invested

$5,571.01

Value

$5.6K

PnL

+$0

Record

50%

1083-1075 (2158)

0xfB07F48542d2b655e9D0Bf1cC92a8a6Feee8e2cC-1782415802542CTR

Under

Invested

$2,820

Value

$2.8K

PnL

+$0

Record

47%

2249-2495 (4744)

0x9f15613ebf1f36d4bc679e1211d1fc567cf9bdb3CTR

Under

Invested

$1,578.41

Value

$1.6K

PnL

-$0

Record

50%

2174-2185 (4359)

HomeRunHazardCTR

Under

Invested

$1,497.66

Value

$1.5K

PnL

-$2.11

Record

54%

15300-12775 (28075)

hi774cCTR

Under

Invested

$1,465.46

Value

$1.5K

PnL

-$0

Record

52%

4572-4237 (8809)

LeLynxMalynxCTR<$100

Under

Invested

$38.8

Value

$39.5

PnL

+$0.62

Record

57%

24239-18661 (42900)

Forecastication2CTR<$100

Under

Invested

$9.4

Value

$9.4

PnL

-$0

Record

63%

5793-3427 (9220)

BayupatiCTR<$100

Under

Invested

$8.82

Value

$8.91

PnL

+$0.09

Record

50%

174-171 (345)

0xheavy888CTR<$100

Under

Invested

$4.7

Value

$4.7

PnL

-$0

Record

56%

6682-5351 (12033)

Research grade

AvoidOver at 52%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the trading costs in the backtests.

BasketballBasketball lost in both windows: −12.0 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −22 to −2), −9.2 % in October.
Spread or totalSpreads and totals: −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 50–60¢0.50–0.70 lost −3.2 % a trade pooled (n 3,834).

Smart Money Signal

Over

1 of 10 top traders (10%)9 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Over wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance53.7%

51.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$86.06

Max Loss

-$100.00

186.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.