Wizards vs. Hornets: O/U 225.5

4 of 10 top Polymarket traders hold Under (40%) · Under at 93¢ · $41K held · ended Oct 26

Over8¢Under92¢Ended Mon, Oct 26, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Under

Consensus Traders

Under 40%

Total Value

$41.3K

Combined PnL

$14.0K

Smart Money Entry

48.9¢ → 92.5¢

+89% since entry · 4 traders

Research grade

AvoidUnder at 93%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the trading costs in the backtests.

BasketballBasketball lost in both windows: −12.0 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −22 to −2), −9.2 % in October.
Spread or totalSpreads and totals: −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)0.70–0.90 was about break-even after costs, +0.4 % a trade (n 4,327); 0.60–0.95 with 70 %+ and $10k+ +2.9 % (n 955). The consensus beats its price by 2–3 points here, about what the costs take.

Backtest of Oct 22 2026: one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees. The grade never goes above “Research candidate”: no rule passed the multiple-testing check. It is not a forecast and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Under

4 of 10 top traders (40%)6 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Over8%

Under93%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Under4 traders

Total Value$36.2K

Total Shares54,905

Combined PnL+$17.0K

Over6 traders

Total Value$5.0K

Total Shares14,783

Combined PnL$-3.0K

Under — 40%Over — 60%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

4 traders

Top 2 hold 100%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

40% of non-arb traders are on Under. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleUnder 100% · 1

Aligned

sharpOver 100% · 1

Diverging

ctrOver 83% · 6

Diverging

Hand-pickedOver 100% · 1

Diverging

Top 1000Over 56% · 9

Diverging

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
HO HomeRunHazard	Underavg 48.8¢	$12.9K	$24.5K	+$11.6K	54% 16251-13613 (29864)
scootergene	Underavg 49¢	$6.3K	$11.7K	+$5.4K	55% 364-298 (662)
PP ppku6298CTR	Overavg 51.3¢	$5.2K	$3.4K	$-1.7K	40% 58-86 (144)
CH chongchong37CTR	Overavg 51¢	$1.7K	$1.1K	$-1.0K	50% 72-72 (144)
EN ENDBOSSLLCCTR	Overavg 34¢	$340	$340	-$145	42% 250-344 (594)
0X 0x84e01e855165C5d56DE153c96DCC3B9bCe727F3D-1782704499041CTR	Overavg 51¢	$180	$120	-$60	58% 179-127 (306)
LE LeLynxMalynx<$100	Underavg 47.2¢	$19.96	$20.81	+$0.85	57% 27008-20057 (47065)
NA NatoAlfistaCTR<$100	Overavg 51¢	$16.42	$16.66	+$0.25	50% 3628-3599 (7227)
FO Forecastication2<$100	Underavg 44¢	$2.2	$2.7	+$0.05	50% 6607-6589 (13196)
SL slimjoeCTR<$100	Overavg 50¢	$2	$1.36	-$0.64	51% 6333-6049 (12382)

HomeRunHazard

Under

Invested

$12,919.12

Value

$24.5K

PnL

+$11.6K

Record

54%

16251-13613 (29864)

scootergene

Under

Invested

$6,293.36

Value

$11.7K

PnL

+$5.4K

Record

55%

364-298 (662)

ppku6298CTR

Over

Invested

$5,160

Value

$3.4K

PnL

$-1.7K

Record

40%

58-86 (144)

chongchong37CTR

Over

Invested

$1,694.32

Value

$1.1K

PnL

$-1.0K

Record

50%

72-72 (144)

ENDBOSSLLCCTR

Over

Invested

$340

Value

$340

PnL

-$145

Record

42%

250-344 (594)

0x84e01e855165C5d56DE153c96DCC3B9bCe727F3D-1782704499041CTR

Over

Invested

$180

Value

$120

PnL

-$60

Record

58%

179-127 (306)

LeLynxMalynx<$100

Under

Invested

$19.96

Value

$20.81

PnL

+$0.85

Record

57%

27008-20057 (47065)

NatoAlfistaCTR<$100

Over

Invested

$16.42

Value

$16.66

PnL

+$0.25

Record

50%

3628-3599 (7227)

Forecastication2<$100

Under

Invested

$2.2

Value

$2.7

PnL

+$0.05

Record

50%

6607-6589 (13196)

slimjoeCTR<$100

Over

Invested

Value

$1.36

PnL

-$0.64

Record

51%

6333-6049 (12382)

Research grade

AvoidUnder at 93%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the trading costs in the backtests.

BasketballBasketball lost in both windows: −12.0 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −22 to −2), −9.2 % in October.
Spread or totalSpreads and totals: −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)0.70–0.90 was about break-even after costs, +0.4 % a trade (n 4,327); 0.60–0.95 with 70 %+ and $10k+ +2.9 % (n 955). The consensus beats its price by 2–3 points here, about what the costs take.

Smart Money Signal

Under

4 of 10 top traders (40%)6 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

4 traders

Top 2 hold 100%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

40% of non-arb traders are on Under. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleUnder 100% · 1

Aligned

sharpOver 100% · 1

Diverging

ctrOver 83% · 6

Diverging

Hand-pickedOver 100% · 1

Diverging

Top 1000Over 56% · 9

Diverging

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Under wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance93.8%

92.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.3¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$6.61

Max Loss

-$100.00

106.6

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.